As the newly appointed Prime Minister tours the country to explain his vision of how to deliver Brexit, weak German PMI data (purchasing managers' index) published last week shocked economists across the board, says leading accounting and tax advisory firm Blick Rothenberg.
Partner Alex Altmann said: “A seven-year low manufacturing output is moving Germany as the largest European economy further into risk of a recession.”
Altmann, who is also a co-chairman of the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany, initiated a German business leader conference in April this year, which came to the conclusion that a no-deal Brexit should be avoided under all circumstances as it would cost the German economy billions of Euros.
Altmann said: “The UK is Germany’s largest export market in Europe with over 20% of all exports going across the Channel. In addition, almost all exports to Ireland go via the UK as well. A no-deal Brexit with customs barriers, regulatory diversion and uncertainty around immigration will cost the German economy around 1% of GDP with the potential of 200,000 job losses, which could move the country into a recession in the fourth quarter of this year.”
He added: “Angela Merkel said that she would fight to the last hour to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal. The new EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen hinted that the EU is open to give the UK more time and extend the Brexit deadline again. Germany’s manufacturers will be watching the next couple of weeks very closely in order to prepare for the worst”.