Weak growth of G20 international merchandise trade in third quarter of 2018

28-Nov-2018

G20 international merchandise trade, seasonally adjusted and expressed in current US dollars, grew marginally in the third quarter of 2018, on the back of rising oil prices, with G20 exports rising by 0.3% and imports by 0.7%, following the minor contractions in the second quarter of 2018.

Excluding large oil exporters, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, G20 trade was flat suggesting that the steady expansion seen over the last two years may have stalled as recent protectionist measures begin to bite.

In the United States, exports contracted by 1.7%. Although exports grew in China (by 2.4%) – partly reflecting the exceptional sale of an oil platform to Brazil, which helped push up Brazilian imports by 18.0% – this only partially offset the significant contraction of Chinese exports (down 4.9%) in the previous quarter. Exports also contracted in the European Union as a whole (minus 0.8%), for the second straight quarter, and in Australia (minus 2.0%), Japan (minus 2.0%), South Africa (minus 0.8%), Turkey (minus 0.6%) and India (minus 0.3%).

Import growth remained weak in most countries, but picked up in large oil-importing countries such as China (4.1%) and India (4.1%), as well as Indonesia (4.9%). Imports decreased significantly in Turkey (minus 14.1%) and Argentina (minus 8.0%), in large part reflecting the continuing depreciation of these countries’ currencies against the US dollar (minus 36% for the Argentine peso and minus 30% for the Turkish lira), as well as in Saudi Arabia (minus 10.6%). Imports also contracted in Australia (minus 5.2%), Russia (minus 5.2%), Canada (minus 1.4%), Korea (minus 0.9%) and the European Union as a whole (minus 0.5%).

G20 total international merchandise trade

Seasonally adjusted, current prices and US$bn

G20 total international merchandise trade

Seasonally adjusted, current prices and US$bn

 

Quarters

2016 Q3

2016 Q4

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

G20

Export

3116.2

3152.0

3271.1

3322.2

3474.9

3572.4

3770.6

3744.5

3757.2

 

Import

3117.8

3143.6

3271.2

3359.0

3510.2

3622.3

3806.4

3796.8

3824.7

Argentina

Export

14.5

14.9

14.7

14.2

14.7

15.1

16.5

14.3

14.4

 

Import

13.3

14.6

15.3

16.2

17.0

18.4

18.6

17.3

15.9

Australia

Export

48.0

55.1

59.1

57.0

58.8

56.0

65.1

64.7

63.4

 

Import

47.4

48.3

50.3

52.9

63.2

55.0

58.3

57.6

54.6

Brazil

Export

45.9

47.3

54.9

54.6

53.9

55.0

59.5

56.7

59.8

 

Import

34.8

34.9

36.8

35.8

38.5

40.1

43.2

42.0

49.5

Canada

Export

99.9

101.0

104.1

105.7

103.6

107.5

109.7

114.9

115.1

 

Import

103.7

99.7

104.2

107.0

109.6

112.0

114.8

116.5

114.8

China

Export

530.2

534.3

560.3

561.2

567.7

586.7

650.8

619.2

634.3

 

Import

401.9

424.2

453.4

452.8

467.7

485.9

530.4

542.9

565.1

EU 28

Export

1345.8

1347.5

1378.8

1425.4

1534.7

1580.0

1653.1

1623.1

1610.7

 

Import

1333.4

1308.4

1352.6

1404.2

1508.4

1554.0

1631.2

1603.3

1594.5

France

Export

124.7

124.9

122.3

130.5

139.7

144.3

148.2

145.3

143.2

 

Import

145.1

143.7

147.0

150.6

164.0

166.1

172.6

171.2

166.4

Germany

Export

333.8

329.5

335.9

349.1

377.5

384.7

402.2

395.6

384.8

 

Import

264.0

262.3

268.9

281.8

300.9

308.6

325.5

322.5

322.1

India

Export

66.3

68.7

74.1

72.1

74.3

78.5

78.4

82.4

82.1

 

Import

91.4

100.8

107.5

113.7

109.7

118.8

122.7

127.7

132.9

Indonesia

Export

35.9

39.1

40.6

39.6

43.8

44.5

44.6

45.0

46.4

 

Import

33.5

35.3

36.7

37.4

40.5

42.6

44.1

46.6

48.9

Italy

Export

116.8

114.4

117.4

122.6

132.6

136.1

140.2

137.6

135.3

 

Import

102.8

102.2

105.6

110.1

117.9

121.5

126.4

125.3

125.5

Japan

Export

167.4

163.8

168.2

171.9

178.4

180.2

184.5

188.2

184.4

 

Import

157.3

154.1

161.1

169.7

168.9

173.6

182.9

185.7

188.4

Korea

Export

123.2

128.8

136.5

144.5

153.4

139.7

150.0

149.1

156.0

 

Import

103.5

108.4

116.9

118.6

123.2

120.8

132.9

134.0

132.9

Mexico

Export

94.8

97.4

99.3

101.0

102.6

106.9

111.2

111.7

114.7

 

Import

97.7

99.3

101.6

103.0

106.2

110.0

113.5

115.3

117.9

Russia

Export

72.3

77.0

86.0

84.0

87.6

96.2

105.2

109.0

114.7

 

Import

49.6

51.3

55.0

59.0

61.1

62.7

65.3

63.7

60.3

Saudi Arabia

Export

46.6

51.4

57.5

49.4

52.7

62.2

66.9

74.4

77.0

 

Import

32.4

33.4

33.3

33.2

34.1

33.9

32.6

35.2

31.4

South Africa

Export

19.6

19.7

21.5

22.2

22.2

23.1

23.9

23.7

23.5

 

Import

19.3

19.6

20.0

21.4

20.6

21.3

24.4

23.1

23.3

Turkey

Export

36.0

36.7

36.3

38.7

40.4

40.9

42.0

40.9

40.6

 

Import

47.1

51.1

52.2

56.3

61.5

63.5

64.3

58.8

50.5

United Kingdom

Export

97.2

97.9

100.1

104.2

108.5

110.5

117.1

112.2

113.6

 

Import

144.1

142.8

144.8

147.4

154.4

157.8

164.7

158.7

158.7

United States

Export

369.7

369.5

379.3

380.9

386.2

399.9

409.3

427.3

420.0

 

Import

551.4

560.3

574.4

577.7

580.0

609.8

627.4

627.3

643.7

G20 total international merchandise trade

Percentage variations

 

Quarters

2016 Q4

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q2

G20

Export

1.1%

3.8%

1.6%

4.6%

2.8%

5.5%

-0.7%

0.3%

 

Import

0.8%

4.1%

2.7%

4.5%

3.2%

5.1%

-0.3%

0.7%

Argentina

Export

2.4%

-1.6%

-3.0%

3.2%

2.8%

9.2%

-13.1%

0.7%

 

Import

9.5%

4.8%

5.8%

5.1%

7.9%

1.1%

-7.1%

-8.0%

Australia

Export

14.8%

7.3%

-3.6%

3.1%

-4.8%

16.3%

-0.6%

-2.0%

 

Import

1.8%

4.1%

5.2%

19.6%

-13.0%

6.0%

-1.1%

-5.2%

Brazil

Export

3.0%

16.1%

-0.6%

-1.2%

2.1%

8.0%

-4.7%

5.5%

 

Import

0.3%

5.5%

-2.6%

7.4%

4.0%

7.9%

-2.9%

18.0%

Canada

Export

1.1%

3.1%

1.5%

-2.0%

3.8%

2.0%

4.7%

0.2%

 

Import

-3.9%

4.5%

2.7%

2.4%

2.2%

2.5%

1.5%

-1.4%

China

Export

0.8%

4.9%

0.1%

1.2%

3.4%

10.9%

-4.9%

2.4%

 

Import

5.6%

6.9%

-0.1%

3.3%

3.9%

9.2%

2.4%

4.1%

EU 28

Export

0.1%

2.3%

3.4%

7.7%

2.9%

4.6%

-1.8%

-0.8%

 

Import

-1.9%

3.4%

3.8%

7.4%

3.0%

5.0%

-1.7%

-0.5%

France

Export

0.2%

-2.1%

6.7%

7.0%

3.3%

2.7%

-2.0%

-1.4%

 

Import

-1.0%

2.3%

2.5%

8.9%

1.3%

3.9%

-0.8%

-2.8%

Germany

Export

-1.3%

1.9%

3.9%

8.1%

1.9%

4.5%

-1.6%

-2.7%

 

Import

-0.6%

2.5%

4.8%

6.8%

2.6%

5.5%

-0.9%

-0.1%

India

Export

3.6%

7.9%

-2.7%

3.1%

5.6%

0.0%

5.1%

-0.3%

 

Import

10.3%

6.7%

5.8%

-3.5%

8.3%

3.3%

4.1%

4.1%

Indonesia

Export

8.9%

4.0%

-2.6%

10.6%

1.8%

0.1%

0.9%

3.2%

 

Import

5.4%

3.9%

2.0%

8.2%

5.2%

3.7%

5.5%

4.9%

Italy

Export

-2.1%

2.7%

4.4%

8.1%

2.7%

3.0%

-1.8%

-1.7%

 

Import

-0.6%

3.3%

4.3%

7.1%

3.1%

4.1%

-0.9%

0.1%

Japan

Export

-2.1%

2.7%

2.2%

3.8%

1.0%

2.4%

2.1%

-2.0%

 

Import

-2.1%

4.6%

5.3%

-0.5%

2.8%

5.3%

1.6%

1.4%

Korea

Export

4.6%

5.9%

5.9%

6.1%

-8.9%

7.4%

-0.6%

4.7%

 

Import

4.6%

7.9%

1.5%

3.9%

-1.9%

10.0%

0.9%

-0.9%

Mexico

Export

2.7%

1.9%

1.7%

1.6%

4.2%

4.0%

0.4%

2.7%

 

Import

1.6%

2.4%

1.3%

3.2%

3.6%

3.1%

1.6%

2.2%

Russia

Export

6.5%

11.7%

-2.2%

4.3%

9.7%

9.4%

3.6%

5.3%

 

Import

3.3%

7.2%

7.3%

3.6%

2.7%

4.1%

-2.5%

-5.2%

Saudi Arabia

Export

10.2%

12.0%

-14.1%

6.6%

18.1%

7.5%

11.2%

3.5%

 

Import

3.2%

-0.4%

-0.3%

2.6%

-0.6%

-3.6%

7.7%

-10.6%

South Africa

Export

0.4%

8.9%

3.6%

-0.1%

4.1%

3.2%

-0.9%

-0.8%

 

Import

1.7%

1.9%

7.0%

-3.7%

3.3%

14.6%

-5.3%

1.0%

Turkey

Export

1.8%

-1.1%

6.5%

4.5%

1.3%

2.7%

-2.7%

-0.6%

 

Import

8.7%

2.1%

7.9%

9.1%

3.3%

1.2%

-8.6%

-14.1%

United Kingdom

Export

0.7%

2.2%

4.1%

4.2%

1.8%

6.0%

-4.2%

1.3%

 

Import

-0.9%

1.4%

1.8%

4.7%

2.2%

4.4%

-3.6%

0.0%

United States

Export

-0.1%

2.6%

0.4%

1.4%

3.6%

2.3%

4.4%

-1.7%

 

Import

1.6%

2.5%

0.6%

0.4%

5.1%

2.9%

0.0%

2.6%

G20 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union. 

The G20 aggregate is derived from the seasonally adjusted data of the individual economies.