Biggest recession bounce backs in property price since the last market crash
Despite fears of a property market crash due to Covid, house prices are at an all-time high and the latest research by property developer, StripeHomes, has revealed which pockets of the market are currently fighting fit based on house price growth since the last market crash.
Biggest market declines
Back in Q3 of 2007, the average UK house price peaked at a high of £189,503. However, when the market crashed, property values fell consistently before bottoming out at £155,701 during the first quarter of 2009; an -18% drop.
The market crash was felt the most in Northern Ireland where the average property price declined by -38%, while the South East (-19%), South West (-18%), East Midlands (-18%) and East of England (-17%) also saw some of the largest declines.
Biggest market bounce backs
However, over a decade later the average UK house price now sits at £240,349 having climbed 54% from when the market bottomed out in 2009, with property values now 27% higher than their pre-recession peak.
London
London has seen the greatest revival of all UK regions. The capital saw house prices fall by 16% during the recession. Today, the London market has bounced back to an average value of £490,620, 96% higher than the recession low of £250,068 and 65% higher than its pre-recession peak of £297,254.
No surprise then, that the best bounce back property markets are largely located within the capital. Waltham Forest has seen the largest bounce back since the recession, with house prices now 118% higher when compared to their 2009 low and 97% more than their pre-recession peak in 2007.
Haringey, Kensington and Chelsea, Lambeth, Islington, Lewisham, Hackney and Newham have also seen property values increase by more than 100% since the recession. Hackney has seen the largest improvement when compared to pre-recession highs, with house prices now 97% higher compared to their 2007 peak.
Outside of London
The East of England (74%), South East (72%), South West (55%) and East Midlands (55%) have also seen the largest increases in property values since the recession, with house prices between 27% and 43% higher than their pre-recession peaks.
Cambridge has seen the largest recovery outside of London, with house prices bouncing back 94% since 2009; now 62% higher than their pre-crash peak. Some of the other largest recoveries outside of the capital include Bristol (91%), Oxford (86%), Epsom and Ewell (85%) and Hertsmere (85%).
Yet to bounce back
Just Northern Ireland has failed to recover, with house prices climbing just 2% since the recession, although they remain -36% below their pre-recession peak.
While house prices in the North East have also climbed 13% since the market bottomed out in 2009, they also remain -4% below their market high seen in 2007.
Managing director of StripeHomes, James Forrester, commented: “There will be generations of UK homebuyers who will have known nothing other than upward house price growth, but those slightly longer in the tooth will have experienced at least one decline in the value of their bricks and mortar during their lifetime.
However, the resilience of the UK property market and the cyclical nature of house price growth means that the market has well and truly bounced back, with all but a very small segment reaching new house price highs.
Not only have the ghosts of the financial crash been laid to rest but house prices have far exceeded their pre-recession peaks and this demonstrates that, by and large, the property market remains the safest investment you can make during your lifetime.”
| Change in average house price between their pre-recession peak, recession low and current market high | ||||||
| Location | Pre-recession house price peak | < Change (%) > | Recession house pricelow | < Change (%) > | Current average house price | Current average price vs 2007 market peak |
| London | £297,254 | -15.9% | £250,068 | 96.2% | £490,620 | 65.1% |
| East of England | £208,049 | -17.4% | £171,803 | 73.7% | £298,381 | 43.4% |
| South East | £236,702 | -18.7% | £192,481 | 72.1% | £331,192 | 39.9% |
| South West | £211,392 | -18.3% | £172,800 | 55.2% | £268,267 | 26.9% |
| East Midlands | £158,821 | -17.8% | £130,503 | 55.2% | £202,486 | 27.5% |
| West Midlands Region | £164,912 | -16.0% | £138,489 | 49.0% | £206,366 | 25.1% |
| Wales | £148,908 | -16.7% | £124,051 | 38.4% | £171,679 | 15.3% |
| North West | £150,994 | -16.3% | £126,355 | 37.6% | £173,872 | 15.2% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | £149,645 | -16.4% | £125,049 | 37.2% | £171,573 | 14.7% |
| Scotland | £142,465 | -13.1% | £123,735 | 26.7% | £156,770 | 10.0% |
| North East | £138,747 | -15.2% | £117,670 | 13.1% | £133,030 | -4.1% |
| Northern Ireland | £224,670 | -37.6% | £140,190 | 2.2% | £143,205 | -36.3% |
| England | £194,151 | -17.1% | £160,990 | 59.8% | £257,270 | 32.5% |
| United Kingdom | £189,503 | -17.8% | £155,701 | 54.4% | £240,349 | 26.8% |
| House price data sourced from the Land Registry House Price Index, recession market timeline based on ESRC. | ||||||
| Largest increases in average house price between recession low and current market value | ||||||
| Location | Pre-recession house price peak | < Change (%) > | Recession house price low | < Change (%) > | Current average house price | Current average price vs 2007 market peak |
| Waltham Forest | £242,826 | -14.6% | £207,396 | 118.1% | £452,404 | 86.3% |
| Haringey | £318,233 | -17.0% | £264,123 | 113.6% | £564,248 | 77.3% |
| Kensington and Chelsea | £785,678 | -19.6% | £631,375 | 112.7% | £1,342,765 | 70.9% |
| Lambeth | £313,070 | -16.9% | £260,247 | 108.3% | £542,167 | 73.2% |
| Islington | £408,718 | -19.4% | £329,450 | 107.2% | £682,537 | 67.0% |
| Lewisham | £233,600 | -11.5% | £206,824 | 106.0% | £426,035 | 82.4% |
| Hackney | £302,432 | -3.6% | £291,446 | 104.4% | £595,622 | 96.9% |
| Newham | £231,833 | -18.4% | £189,072 | 100.5% | £379,104 | 63.5% |
| City of London | £468,253 | -15.1% | £397,633 | 97.8% | £786,424 | 67.9% |
| Southwark | £296,194 | -12.5% | £259,218 | 96.2% | £508,678 | 71.7% |
| Timeline | Q3, 2007 | Q1, 2009 | Q3, 2020 | |||
| House price data sourced from the Land Registry House Price Index, recession market timeline based on ESRC. | ||||||
| Largest increases in average house price between recession low and current market value outside of London | ||||||
| Location | Pre-recession house price peak | < Change (%) > | Recession house price low | < Change (%) > | Current average house price | Current average price vs 2007 market peak |
| Cambridge | £274,215 | -16.5% | £229,054 | 94.4% | £445,202 | 62.4% |
| City of Bristol | £193,214 | -19.8% | £155,048 | 90.9% | £296,011 | 53.2% |
| Oxford | £276,236 | -18.4% | £225,367 | 86.3% | £419,858 | 52.0% |
| Epsom and Ewell | £309,661 | -17.5% | £255,325 | 84.8% | £471,737 | 52.3% |
| Hertsmere | £293,145 | -13.8% | £252,701 | 84.6% | £466,448 | 59.1% |
| Slough | £196,310 | -16.8% | £163,371 | 83.7% | £300,149 | 52.9% |
| St Albans | £331,469 | -14.3% | £284,157 | 82.7% | £519,180 | 56.6% |
| Elmbridge | £397,237 | -18.2% | £324,783 | 82.5% | £592,733 | 49.2% |
| Brighton and Hove | £253,409 | -19.1% | £205,004 | 82.5% | £374,119 | 47.6% |
| Trafford | £197,574 | -15.6% | £166,688 | 82.2% | £303,650 | 53.7% |
| Timeline | Q3, 2007 | Q1, 2009 | Q3, 2020 | |||
| House price data sourced from the Land Registry House Price Index, recession market timeline based on ESRC. | ||||||
