Christmas cheer for UK retailers as strong festive sales forecast

As thoughts start to turn to the festive period, UK retailers are preparing for a strong uplift in sales this holiday shopping season. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse™, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, UK sales* are expected to grow by 8% between 1 November and 26 December compared to the same time period in 2020.

As we enter the new normal post pandemic, the move to shopping online is expected to continue, ecommerce sales forecast for November and December are expected to climb 35% compared to the same season in 2019.

Spend on clothing is set to increase 11% YOY as people prepare to put their best foot forward for the party season, making up for lost opportunities in 2020. Looking at online sales exclusively, a 32% increase YOY in clothing sales in expected, which is a 71% YO2Y increase on 2019.  Total jewellery sales are also forecast to increase 19% on 12 months ago as more people treat themselves and loved ones to new bling for the holidays.

Home furnishing sales also look to increase 8% on 2019 pre-pandemic levels – however again taking just online sales, shops can expect to see a 46% increase over the same period. This ties into the of returning to socialising and parties for friends and families at home in the run up to and during the holidays, with grocery spending also expected to see an uplift of 6% YOY.

“The weeks leading up to Christmas have always been key for retailers. According to our SpendingPulse forecast this window in 2021 is set to bounce back strongly for UK shops. Hopes of a more normal festive period brings an air of excitement as people start to get into the holiday spirit and look forward to in-person events that most were unable to enjoy last year,” said Kelly Devine, divisional president, Mastercard UK & Ireland.

Anticipated Retail Sales for the Festive Season (1 Nov – 26 Dec 2021):

*Excluding petrol, cars and restaurants