UK’s prime housing market is past ‘peak pain’ and values projected to rise
Prime markets (broadly the top 5-10% of a given market by value) will recover more quickly than the mainstream in 2024 due to lower reliance on borrowing and values are projected to rise by almost a fifth in total by the end of 2028, according to the latest five-year residential market forecasts from property advisors, Savills.
Cash and equity rich buyers continue to underpin activity
“Cash and equity rich buyers – synonymous with prime markets – have remained the most resilient buyer group over the past year, with transactions remaining 3.5% higher than the 2017-19 average,” comments Frances McDonald, director of residential research at Savills.
“While interest rates and borrowing relative to incomes remain high there is expected to be a divergence in performance between locations with the highest concentration of equity, with the prime markets expected to begin to recover from mid-2024 and see positive price growth from 2025.”
Prime UK house price forecasts 2024-2028
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 5 years to 2028 | |
| Prime central London | 0.0% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 18.7% |
| Outer prime London | -2.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 17.4% |
| Suburbs | -2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 16.2% |
| Inner Commute | -2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 16.8% |
| Outer Commute | -1.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 18.6% |
| Wider South | -1.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 19.1% |
| Midlands/ North | -1.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 21.5% |
| Scotland | -1.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 20.9% |
| Wales | -1.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 20.3% |
| All prime regional average (excl London) | -1.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 18.6% |
Source: Savills Research
