Consumers hold back for Black Friday deals
Covering the 4 weeks 5 October – 1 November 2025
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Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “October was a subdued month, with the weakest growth since May. Many delayed spending, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler temperatures before buying toys, electronics and clothing. Furniture and other homeware fared better as people began preparing their homes ahead of family festive gatherings. Food sales also saw good growth, but this was mostly driven by higher prices rather than higher volumes.
“Retailers are counting on Black Friday to deliver a vital boost, but looming Budget decisions risk undermining fragile consumer confidence. With demand weak and business rates unresolved, retailers face hard choices on investment and recruitment. A business rates surtax on retail would put major stores and thousands of jobs at risk. The Chancellor should use the Budget to remove this threat and help curb inflation for businesses and families.”
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure, KPMG, said: “October’s retail sales growth fell back compared to recent months, with online growth drying up altogether. Sales of many household goods have seen consistent growth in recent months, linked to the lag benefit from the house buying surge seen before Stamp Duty changes in Spring. But many home related categories fell in October and the coming months will tell whether this reflects the flattening out of the housing market, or a cautious consumer concerned about the UK’s economic prospects.””
“With Black Friday sales already getting underway and Christmas displays also now up in many stores, retailers are aiming at swiftly reversing the slowdown in sales growth seen during October. Our own research indicates that the majority of shoppers are considering purchases over the Black Friday period, and that AI will play a growing role in how consumers search for and find promotional offers or gifts. This tech evolution presents both challenges and benefits to retailers trying to capture these tech savvy shoppers.”
Food & Drink sector performance | Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD, said: “Shopper focus has shifted towards controlling their spending more tightly this month for food and grocery shopping. Confidence has dipped, with shoppers prioritising saving money over quality for the first time this year. The news of potential tax rises will concern many shoppers, even as food price inflation eased somewhat. With the job market stalling and the gap between pay growth and price rises narrowing, overall shoppers aren’t feeling much benefit. Looking ahead, we predict shoppers will be extra cautious in the short term to ensure they can afford to treat themselves at Christmas. Depending on the impact of the Budget, the festive period will provide opportunities for trade-up. Earlier this year, we saw in our research that many shoppers indicated they planned to buy more premium private label products and opt for specific brands. If they stick to these intentions, it could provide a boost to spending”