Half of UK SMEs confident in spotting trends, new SumUp report finds
For SMEs, the Christmas trading period represents the year’s biggest opportunity. While large retailers have dedicated trend forecasting teams, smaller businesses often rely on gut instinct, and some are proving they can compete by tapping into social media and search data trends that shape consumer demand.
To understand how SMEs are turning trends into revenue, especially during the Christmas period, SumUp surveyed 500 small business owners and decision-makers across the UK. With 17% saying Christmas is their busiest and most profitable time, and a further 25% agreeing it’s an important sales period, the findings reveal how SMEs identify emerging trends, the impact trend adoption has had on their business, and the risks involved in investing in trends.
How SMEs spot emerging trends
Half (50%) of SMEs expressed confidence in their ability to spot trends, with 13% describing themselves as very confident, actively tracking and adapting their offerings, while a further 37% said they feel confident enough to make occasional adjustments. Another 24% said they are somewhat confident but struggle to assess which trends are truly relevant to their business, while 15% admit to lacking confidence in spotting trends or not tracking trends at all.
When it comes to where SMEs look for inspiration, over a third (34%) turn to industry news and events, indicating a preference for credible, sector-led insight. Meanwhile, 29% rely on social media, which has become a place where consumers often create and share new trends, and businesses look for opportunities to join in.
Other ways that small businesses learn about emerging trends include customer requests or feedback (25%), assessing their competitors’ offerings and success (21%), and through their suppliers or partners (18%). Interestingly, 14% admitted they do not seek out trends that could impact their business.
Risk vs impact: How SMEs experience and evaluate trend adoption
For small businesses, adopting new trends can carry risks. Limited budgets and resources mean that they don’t have the financial flexibility to take chances on ideas that may not pay off.
When asked about the biggest risk associated with following trends, 26% of SMEs said they worry about wasting time on short-lived fads, which can often leave them stuck with excess stock or materials that are difficult to shift. Furthermore, 15% of SMEs said the financial risk of following trends is simply too high, while another 13% worry about investing in stock or materials that could end up unsold.
SMEs also expressed concerns about whether trends will appeal to their existing customers or attract new consumers (13%), appearing to imitate competitors by adopting trends too late (13%), and diverting focus and resources away from their best-selling products (12%).
Only 18% of SMEs said they don’t associate risk with following trends. But, for those who have adopted them, the results are largely positive.
Over a third (34%) reported a positive impact, including 10% who said they experienced a significant boost. A further 15% saw no measurable chance, while just 2% reported a negative outcome. Nearly half (46%) said they hadn’t adopted any new trends in the past year.
Hospitality focus: The top trends in the UK café and restaurant sector
For cafés, restaurants, and other hospitality businesses, staying on top of trends can make a real difference to their profits. The importance of getting it right is underscored by Christmas trading, which for 31% of SMEs is their most profitable time, with a further 45% in this sector considering it an important sales period.
Social media plays a key role for hospitality SMEs, with over half (52%) turning to digital platforms to seek out new trends, from viral food items to seasonal menu ideas. Industry news (36%) and customer requests (32%) also guide business owners’ decisions when adopting trends.
When it comes to the impact of adopting trends, over half (59%) of hospitality SMEs have reported positive effects on their business, including 18% who saw a significant boost. Confidence in spotting trends is also high among SMEs in this sector, with 66% feeling confident or very confident in their ability to identify and act on trends.
While this sector has had a largely positive impact from trend adoption, SMEs are still aware of the potential risks. Over a quarter (26%) are worried about investing in short-lived fads, while 21% are concerned about putting money into stock or ideas that may not sell. A further 19% worry that they can’t keep up with how quickly trends change, highlighting the challenge of fast-changing consumer preferences.
What’s trending in the hospitality industry?
The most searched for products in the café and restaurant sector right now indicate a desire for indulgent treats and globally inspired flavours. For SMEs, these trends highlight an opportunity to update their menus with items that are gaining popularity online, helping SMEs tap into what consumers are actively looking for.
Rank | Product | Popularity |
1 | Matcha | 15.3M |
2 | Bubble tea | 6.8M |
3 | Dubai Chocolate | 4.8M |
4 | Banana bread | 4.0M |
5 | Pistachio | 3.6M |
Corin Camenisch, product marketing lead at SumUp, commented on the survey, saying, “As champions of small businesses, our research highlights the unique challenges and opportunities SMEs face when navigating trends.”
“We’re now entering the busiest sales period of the year, and while Christmas is a crucial time to boost revenue, success can often depend on the ability to spot and act on emerging trends, whether it’s incorporating a seasonal drink to your menu or investing in viral products. We ran this survey to capture first-hand experience from SMEs navigating the process of turning trends into revenue.”