Market Report: consumer jitters, chip chatter, and streaming drama
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “The FTSE 100 opened flat this morning as investors digested softer UK retail data. BRC figures showed like-for-like sales up just 1.2% in November, the weakest growth in six months, as shoppers held back ahead of Rachel Reeves’ Budget and Black Friday failed to impress – underscoring a cautious consumer backdrop.
Equipment rental giant Ashtead’s second-quarter results came in slightly soft, though broadly in line with expectations. The headline is a new $1.5 billion buyback, a clear signal of strong cash flows and a welcome boost for sentiment after a year of share price underperformance. Softer conditions in the key US market continues to weigh, but lower interest rates and resilient mega-project activity could turn the tide. If those trends hold, the story for 2026 looks more attractive.
US markets slipped modestly yesterday, with little on the macro front for investors to latch onto. Instead, stock drama stole the spotlight, from Paramount’s hostile play for Warner Bros Discovery to chatter around Nvidia’s China chip approval. All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where a cut is baked in – the real question is how steep the path of easing looks from here, with a pause the most likely next step.
Donald Trump is back stirring the chip pot again, claiming Nvidia’s H200 chip is cleared for sale to China – but with a 25% sales tax, up from 15%. That sounds bullish, but it’s far too early to bake in the $15–25bn China GPU revenue some are whispering about for next year. The approval hints that Blackwell-for-China (its latest technology) is still off the table, and given past delays with licenses, there are still plenty of hurdles to clear. The bottom line here is that Nvidia doesn’t need China sales to post a mammoth 2026, it’s a positive step in the right direction, but consensus is still too low even without this development.
The streaming wars just got messier. Paramount has crashed the party with a hostile $30-a-share bid for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD). Here’s where it gets messy, Paramount want the whole pie, whereas Netflix’s bid excludes the legacy Networks business so, depending on how you value that slice, the sums on who has the better offer can swing either way. The one certainty is that Paramount’s pitch is all cash – unlike Netflix’s 85% cash mix – but it’s silent on the $2.8bn break-up fee WBD would owe if it walked away from Netflix. For Netflix, it’s a largely expected twist, but still an unhelpful turn of events as critics question whether now is the right time to abandon its build-not-buy strategy.
Brent crude oil is hovering near $62 a barrel after a 2% drop yesterday, as fresh supply concerns drown out geopolitical noise. Traders are bracing for IEA and OPEC+ updates later this week, with recent forecasts pointing to a surplus next year and Iraq’s restart of a key oilfield adding to the pressure. Rate-cut hopes from the Fed could offer a lifeline for demand, but for now, the bears have the upper hand.”