Inflation to remain sticky in 2026
Period Covered: 01 – 07 December 2025
- Shop price inflation picked up to 0.7% year on year in December, against growth of 0.6% in November. This is in line with the 3-month average of 0.7%.
- Non-Food inflation decreased to -0.6% year on year in December, against a decline of -0.6% in November. This is in line with the 3-month average of -0.6%.
- Food inflation increased to 3.3% year on year in December, against growth of 3.0% in November. This is in line with the 3-month average of 3.3%.
- Fresh Food inflation increased to 3.8% year on year in December, against growth of 3.6% in November. This is below the 3-month average of 3.9%.
- Ambient Food inflation increased to 2.5% year on year in December, against growth of 2.4% in November. This is below the 3-month average of 2.6%.
| Overall SPM | Food | Non-Food | ||||
| % Change | On last year | On last month | On last year | On last month | On last year | On last month |
| Dec-25 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Nov-25 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 3.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
Note: Month-on-month % change refers to changes in the level of prices.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Shop price inflation edged up in December as food prices rose at a faster rate. Nonetheless, shoppers still found plenty of value across many Christmas essentials including vegetables, cheeses, and alcohol, helping households to enjoy the festive season. Promotions were also widespread across popular gifting categories, including toys, books, and home entertainment.
“This year, retailers will continue to do all they can to keep prices down. While falling energy prices and improved crop supply should help ease some cost pressures, increased public policy costs and regulation will likely keep inflation sticky. 2026 must be the year that Government works with business to create a policy environment that reduces the pressures bearing down on the industry. This will enable retailers to invest more in keeping their prices down, benefitting households all across the country.”
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight, NIQ, said: “This Christmas, shoppers remained cautious, prioritising affordability. Retailers worked hard to encourage spending by keeping supply chain price increases to a minimum, and many food retailers reduced prices in December to support demand. Looking ahead to 2026, although inflation has peaked, weak shopper sentiment is likely to persist, so shoppers will continue to seek out lower prices and promotional offers.”