Surge in retail and hospitality claims raises industry concerns over refunds and January demand
Shoppers should be cautious this January as mounting economic stress in the retail and hospitality sectors signals a red flag for Christmas refunds, bookings and vouchers.
The warning comes as Atradius, one of the UK’s largest trade credit insurers, releases new figures showing claims for failed and delayed invoice payments in these sectors have spiked year-on-year (Nov 2025).
Claims against UK retail stores rose 33% year-on-year, with the hospitality sector – including hotels and catering – seeing an even sharper 50% rise. These increases reflect a growing number of businesses delaying payments to suppliers, an early indicator of cashflow stress that predates the busy Christmas trading season.
The alarm bells come amid broader signs of weakening consumer demand, with the latest crucial Christmas trading period labelled as ‘drab’ and retail sales up only modestly since last year (1.2%, Dec 2024 vs 3.2% Dec 2025).
Ruby Hartery, risk analyst at Atradius says: “The rise in claims we saw in November suggests financial pressure was already building in retail and hospitality well before Christmas trading began. Late payment to suppliers is often one of the earliest indicators of cash-flow stress, particularly in consumer-facing sectors with high fixed costs. With January typically a slower trading month, these pressures can quickly become more visible – not just for businesses, but for consumers waiting on refunds, bookings or vouchers to be honoured.
“In this environment, businesses should be actively reviewing their exposure to non-payment and ensuring they have the right cover in place to protect cash flow and maintain confidence as trading conditions remain volatile.”