Lunar New Year spending surge expected to drive cross-border chargeback spike
Chargebacks911, a global leader in dispute resolution and chargeback prevention, is warning merchants and payments leaders to prepare for a surge in post-holiday disputes as Lunar New Year spending accelerates across Asia-Pacific and international eCommerce markets.
The Lunar New Year begins on 17 February this year and drives one of the largest annual spending peaks outside Western holiday seasons. In 2025, China recorded more than 9 billion domestic trips during the wider Spring Festival travel period. During the core holiday week alone, the country saw 501 million domestic trips and RMB 677bn (about $93bn) in tourism spending, while cross-border travel bookings rose 30% year over year.
Chargebacks911 says the behavioural patterns associated with the festival mirror those seen during Christmas or Black Friday, often followed by a noticeable rise in disputes.
“Lunar New Year is effectively a regional Black Friday combined with a family holiday season,” said Monica Eaton, founder and CEO of Chargebacks911. “Spending rises quickly, purchases are often made across borders, and multiple people may use the same card or device. Those conditions naturally increase the risk of post-holiday disputes.”
The company expects four primary chargeback drivers during the period:
- Cross-border fulfilment disputes: High volumes of international orders can lead to longer delivery times, customs delays, and confusion around return policies. These issues commonly result in “item not received” or “not as described” disputes.
- Shared-card and family spending: Household members often use the same cards or accounts to buy gifts. When the primary cardholder reviews their statement, unfamiliar transactions may be reported as unauthorised.
- Emotional and last-minute purchases: Cultural expectations around gifting can drive rushed or impulsive purchases, increasing the likelihood of buyer’s remorse and post-holiday disputes.
- Seasonal scams and fake merchants: Fraudsters frequently exploit major shopping periods, setting up counterfeit stores or charity scams that target seasonal generosity.
“In many cases, the transaction itself is legitimate, but the context around it changes,” Eaton said. “A delayed shipment, a family member using the card, or a rushed purchase can all turn into a dispute weeks later. Merchants need to plan for the chargeback cycle, not just the sales cycle.”
Eaton notes that APAC markets and cross-border merchants are particularly exposed, as the holiday drives both domestic spending and international gift purchases.
To reduce risk, the company recommends that merchants:
- Communicate shipping timelines and return policies clearly
- Send proactive delivery and order notifications
- Use recognisable billing descriptors
- Monitor for unusual seasonal fraud patterns
- Prepare customer service teams for post-holiday enquiries
“Lunar New Year is a major commercial opportunity, but it comes with the same post-season dispute wave we see after other global shopping peaks,” Eaton said. “Merchants that prepare for that second phase will protect both revenue and customer relationships.”