Monday Market Report: Financial markets rattled by fresh trade uncertainty
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club: “The rip-roaring performance of the Footsie has been interrupted as fresh trade chaos mars the party. The exuberance that flashed over global markets after the US Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariffs as unconstitutional is evaporating. The president is using a backdoor via the Trade Act to reimpose temporary blanket tariffs of 10% and has threatened to increase the rate to 15%. Bilateral deals reached through tortuous negotiations have been thrown up in the air again, creating a cloud of uncertainty. Countries are already preparing to retaliate, with the European Union looking set to halt the ratification of a deal with the US and India also postponing its negotiations to finalise an agreement. Instead of taking a big step forward, global trade has taken two steps back. Companies are having to plan multiple scenarios, and future revenue streams are harder to map when the ground keeps shifting.
The spectre of stagflation is hovering once again amid the fallout from capricious policymaking from the White House. The US economy is weakening under the pressure, with growth sharply undershooting expectations in the fourth quarter, while inflation remains uncomfortably stubborn. These worries are coming back into focus and colliding with the latest tariff uncertainty. As investors become increasingly wary about US economic policy, the dollar has suffered fresh falls against a basket of currencies, with the Dollar Index down 0.35%. Uneasiness is set to spread on Wall Street, with futures markets indicating a retreat when trading resumes later. Japan’s Nikkei has absorbed the concerns, falling 1.1%. The FTSE 100 has also opened lower, down 0.2%, with the slightly stronger pound weighing on multinationals that earn the majority of their revenues overseas. Nevertheless, it remains resilient amid the headwinds. The index is still up by more than 8% year to date, with mining stocks continuing to benefit from a march higher in metals prices.
It’s not surprising that in this febrile environment, amid fresh tariff turmoil and tense geopolitics, gold has been on another upward run. The precious metal climbed back above $5,160 an ounce earlier, a three-week high, before retreating slightly. The American military build-up in the Gulf has continued, with Iran so far resisting pressure from the US to restrict its nuclear development programme. Hopes are still being pinned on talks planned for later this week, with Iran’s foreign minister talking up the prospects for a deal. Brent crude has fallen back around 1% to about $71, but prices are set to stay volatile as fresh negotiations get underway.”