15% Tariffs: Analysts hit out at Trump’s ‘politically driven’ trade policy
Industry analysts have condemned US President Donald Trump’s plans for 15% global tariffs this week, claiming US trade policy is becoming ‘politically driven’.
The reaction from industry leaders comes as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said told reports that the US was “likely” to implement a 15% global tariff this week, following conflicting statements from President Donald Trump about the rate. The new tariff initiative is intended to replace the sweeping global import taxes Trump imposed last year but were recently struck down by the Supreme Court.
Responding to the news Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com said: “At face value, a likely move to a 15% global tariff – especially after legal setbacks and conflicting messaging – reinforces the theme that US trade policy remains politically driven. The use of Section 122 to temporarily impose tariffs without congressional approval suggests policy risk is not going away, even after the Supreme Court ruling.
From a market reaction standpoint, several channels matter.
First, the inflation channel. A higher global tariff effectively acts as a consumption tax. If implemented at 15%, it could lift import costs across a broad range of goods. In isolation, that would likely push US inflation expectations marginally higher – especially if it coincides with elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions. That combination could complicate the Federal Reserve’s outlook and potentially dampen expectations for rate cuts. In the near term, that is mildly supportive for the US dollar and potentially negative for bonds.
Second, the growth channel. Markets may start pricing in a drag on global trade volumes and business investment if a permanent tariff regime looks likely. Export-heavy economies – particularly in Europe and Asia — could see equity markets come under additional pressure. With the DAX and other European indices already sensitive to energy prices, a renewed trade headwind compounds the downside risks.
Third, the fiscal and legal risk channel. The possibility that the US government may owe up to $130bn in refunds, plus significant interest costs, adds a layer of fiscal uncertainty. While this may not immediately move markets, it introduces medium-term questions about debt dynamics and legal exposure. If tariff revenues were previously seen as partially offsetting deficits, doubts about their permanence could weigh on confidence in US fiscal projections.
Given everything else going on – geopolitical escalation, rising oil, elevated volatility – this development likely reinforces the risk-off bias rather than triggering a fresh shock on its own. The US dollar could remain supported as both a safe haven and on expectations of firmer inflation. Equities, particularly trade-sensitive and multinational companies, may struggle to regain momentum. Emerging markets and export-dependent currencies could face additional pressure.”
Raj Abrol. CEO, Galytix said:”Surging tariffs, fluctuating oil prices and disruption to shipping driven by conflict in the Middle East means managing risk is now a top priority for financial services organisations. However, far too many still lack the ability to accurately assess and respond to shifting risk profiles, something that can be done accurately and faster with AI. With uncertainty now the new normal, market intelligence data is an essential asset, and will help reassure investors and risk managers in complex times.”
Kenny MacAulay, CEO of Acting Office, a software platform for accounting practices said: “Higher tariffs amidst geopolitical conflict will cause a major headache for businesses, especially those organisations dependant on international supply chains. Responding to shifting levies also adds a layer of compliance complexity, meaning companies need to keep a closer eye on margins and risk assessments for additional charges in the future. The reality is that businesses will struggle to respond to this uncertainty without the right software in place, to manage risk, adapt to shifting charges and even stay afloat in extremely challenging times.”
But Patrick Sullivan, CEO of the Parliament Street think tank welcomed the news, saying: “It’s high time those benefitting from access to the US market pay their fair share, and President Trump is quite correct to implement this policy.”