Markets await Nvidia report amid rising volatility in AI sector
Since the fall of 2022, when the world first saw ChatGPT, Nvidia shares have been among the main beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom. It is on the basis of its accelerators that a significant part of the global AI infrastructure is being built. However, the growth of the stocks has slowed in the current quarter, and investors are increasingly wondering whether further multibillion-dollar injections into the sector are justified and whether financial results will be able to maintain the previous capitalization dynamics.
Nvidia’s quarterly stock growth proved notably more modest than the broader market’s dynamics. This increases nervousness ahead of the report’s publication, as the previous two quarters saw price declines despite strong indicators. In fact, the market requires not just confirmation of current demand, but also a convincing signal that leadership can be sustained amid increasing competition and a gradual shift in focus from model training to inference.
It is noteworthy that expectations surrounding Nvidia’s results are accompanied by increased volatility in the derivatives market. S&P 500 futures are increasingly reacting to news about AI-sector capital expenditures. Since Nvidia and its key customers account for a significant share of the index, revisions to forecasts for accelerator demand or infrastructure budgets are instantly reflected in market expectations. Thus, the reaction of futures becomes an indicator of how willing investors are to continue betting on the continuation of the AI cycle in the current macroeconomic conditions.
The actions of key clients further fuel expectations. Meta Platforms is ready to expand purchases of Nvidia components from next-generation GPUs to Vera Rubin racks and Grace processors. Meta’s previously announced plans to allocate up to $135 billion to AI development this year and up to $600 billion to infrastructure in the United States by 2028 are actually driving long-term demand for accelerators. The news of the deal supported Nvidia shares while increasing pressure on AMD shares, highlighting a shift in sector expectations.
Nevertheless, the market evaluates the sustainability of this demand through the prism of macroeconomic risks. A U.S. Supreme Court decision temporarily blocking part of the Trump administration’s tariff policy improved investor sentiment. A potential reduction in average tariffs could partially ease inflationary pressures and reduce the cost of imported components. However, electronics and semiconductors remain influenced by structural factors, primarily memory and hardware shortages amid the AI boom. The Court’s decision came less than a week before President Trump’s State of the Union address, as shown on the economic calendar — an event closely watched by investors for further signals.
The result is a dual picture. On the one hand, the largest customers continue to increase capital expenditures, which creates a large-scale order portfolio for Nvidia. On the other hand, the market is increasingly sensitive to evaluating the effectiveness of these investments. The high infrastructure costs previously signaled by Microsoft and Amazon have already raised investor concerns.
If Nvidia can convincingly demonstrate sustained market share and order growth in the inference segment, this may serve as the basis for a new round of revaluation. Otherwise, even a strong report may prompt profit-taking. Since the company’s securities act as an indicator of the AI cycle, their drawdown can drag the entire technology segment down with it. In this context, Nvidia’s upcoming financial statements are becoming not just a corporate event but a test of the sustainability of the entire artificial intelligence investment model.