UK goods exports soared in January – but it may be a false dawn, cautions Parcelhero
New ONS figures show UK goods exports jumped by £2bn in January, with an increase in exports to both EU and non-EU countries. However, US tariff changes and the impact of the Iran conflict mean 2026’s strong start may swiftly falter, warns the international delivery specialist Parcelhero.
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) international trade bulletin shows UK goods exports climbed by 6.7% in January, a rise of £2bn. Exports to both EU and non-EU countries all rose, with only the US market showing a decline.
This was a strong result, says the international delivery expert Parcelhero, but January’s success could prove to be a false dawn before the turmoil that hit export markets in February and March.
David Jinks MILT, Parcelhero’s head of Consumer Research, says: ‘2026 got off to a flying start with a £2bn month-on-month increase in goods exports over December 2025. With December traditionally being a strong month because of the Christmas peak, this was a particularly good result.
‘Diving into more detail, this rise was because of a £1.1bn (7.1%) jump in exports to non-EU countries and a £0.9bn (6.2%) increase in exports to the EU. Only the troubled US market saw a decline, down by £0.5bn (11.3%).
‘The UK’s main export successes to the EU were a £0.6bn rise in exports of machinery & transport equipment and a £0.3bn increase in fuel exports. Key to non-EU market growth were a £0.5bn rise in chemical exports and a £0.3bn increase in exports of both machinery & transport equipment and fuels.
‘Of course, month-on-month figures are volatile, which is why a three-month period is more indicative of the UK’s overall trading picture. Here again, it was positive news. Total exports of goods increased by £1.8bn (2%) in the three-month period November 2025-January 2026 over the preceding three-month period (August-October 2025). This rise was because goods exports to non-EU countries increased by £1bn (2.1%) and goods exports to the EU also rose by £0.8bn (1.8%).
‘However, it would not pay to bet the farm on the rest of 2026 progressing so smoothly for UK exporters. Already in January we could see the US market faltering. There was a £0.4bn fall in exports of machinery & transport equipment to the US, with smaller falls in exports of most other commodities. Crucially, that fall in machinery & transport equipment exports was primarily because of reduced sales of cars to the US. As the ONS acknowledges: “The value of goods exports to the United States have remained relatively low since the introduction of trade tariffs in April 2025 and British-manufactured cars have been particularly hard-hit.”
‘February’s imposition of a global 10% basic tariff on goods arriving in the US will have harmed UK exports to the USA still further. The new 10% basic tariff was imposed by President Trump after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariffs. Even though 10% was the rate being paid on many UK products already, the majority of other countries were paying higher tariffs until this change, which means UK products sold in the US are now no cheaper than similar ones from most other countries.
‘One further precursor of turmoil might be seen in the fact that UK imports shrank in January month-on-month. The value of goods imports decreased by £0.3bn (0.6%), with a fall in imports from non-EU countries only partially offset by a rise in imports from the EU.
‘Goods imports also declined over the three-month period November 2025-January 2026 by £1.3bn (0.9%) compared with the three months to October 2025. Goods imports from non-EU countries fell by £1.1bn (1.5%) and from the EU by £0.2bn (0.3%).
‘While this was bad news for UK importers, every cloud has a silver lining. The fall in imports meant that the UK’s trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £3.1bn to £56.6bn over the three-month period, because goods exports increased while imports fell.
‘A final nugget from these figures is one Prime Minister Kier Starmer may want to keep up his sleeve in case of any further tariff turmoil with President Trump. In 2025, the UK’s total imports from the USA were valued at £60.6bn but our exports were only £59.2bn. That means the UK currently has a negative trade balance with the US and – logically speaking – should not be included in any further tariff increases President Trump may impose on those countries he sees as financially exploiting the US.