Confidence collapses as war escalates
Fieldwork conducted on 10 – 13 March 2026
According to BRC-Opinium data, consumer expectations over the next three months of:
- The state of the economy worsened significantly to -53 in March, down from -30 in February. This is the lowest on record.
- Their personal financial situation worsened to -17 in March, down from -6 in February. This is the lowest on record.
- Their personal spending on retail rose to +2 in March, up from 0 in February.
- Their personal spending overall rose to +13 in March, up from +6 in February.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Consumer confidence collapsed as the Middle East conflict raised the prospect of higher inflation in the months ahead. As stock markets tumbled, confidence in both the economy and personal finances dropped to their lowest levels on record. The drop in confidence was most pronounced among the Boomer generation, who are most reliant on investment and pension funds. Meanwhile, spending expectations rose as shoppers expected to see rising energy costs reflected across the economy.
“The current conflict has created a great deal of uncertainty in the economy. Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months. Just as the economy was beginning to turn a corner on inflation, the rise in global energy prices is particularly unwelcome for businesses and families. It is now vitally important that Government policy does not exacerbate the situation, and bringing down the cost of living must be a top priority. From new employment laws to rising packaging taxes, Government must focus on how it can minimise unnecessary costs to retailers, thereby helping protect ordinary households from the rising cost of living.”
Consumer expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months:
Consumer expectations for their personal financial situation over the next three months:
Consumer expectations of spending over the next three months by category:
Consumer NET expectations of spending over the next three months by category: