$39tn US debt timebomb no-one is talking about
Soaring US national debt – more than $39tn and growing – is the huge issue no-one is talking about, but it’s a looming problem that could hit markets, borrowing costs, currencies and confidence across the global financial system.
This is the stark warning from the CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations, as investors remain fixated on near-term headlines while a far bigger structural strain keeps building in plain sight.
Fresh geopolitical turmoil has added to the pressure. Escalating tensions involving Iran have already unsettled markets, driven oil prices higher and triggered volatility in US Treasuries, exposing underlying fragilities in the system.
Nigel Green says: “The world’s biggest economy is carrying more than $39tn of debt, yet, remarkably, this still doesn’t dominate market discussion in the way it should.
“Too much attention is being given to the next short-term data point and nowhere near enough to the long-term debt burden sitting underneath the entire system.”
He continues: “I cannot stress enough that this is a fundamental issue. It’s not a side story.
“It affects how the US funds itself, how markets price risk, how the dollar is viewed, and how investors around the world assess future stability.”
Official projections underline the scale of the challenge. The federal deficit is expected to remain close to $2tn, while annual interest payments are projected to reach around $1tn and continue rising sharply in the years ahead.
At the same time, the overall debt burden is forecast to climb significantly as a share of the economy over the next decade.
Nigel Green says: “Once a country is spending around a trillion dollars a year just on interest, the debt story stops being abstract. It becomes a live market issue.
“It deserves far more attention from policymakers, institutions and investors than it’s getting today.”
He explains: “A debt load of this scale limits room for manoeuvre. It leaves the US more exposed to yield spikes, more exposed to external shocks and more exposed to shifts in foreign demand for Treasuries.”
Recent moves in rates markets underline the point. Treasury yields have climbed sharply in recent weeks, pushing borrowing costs higher across the economy, while mortgage rates have risen to their highest levels in months, weighing on housing activity and demand.
“Higher debt does not stay contained in Washington. It feeds through to real borrowing costs across the economy. Homebuyers feel it, businesses feel it, consumers feel it. Yet public debate still treats the debt mountain as background noise.”
He says: “Markets have become too comfortable with the assumption that the Treasury market will endlessly absorb huge supply without friction.
“Recent weeks have been a reminder that this confidence can be tested.”
There are also emerging signs of strain in demand dynamics. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries have shown periods of decline, while market liquidity has become more fragile during bouts of volatility, raising concerns about how smoothly future issuance can be absorbed.
The deVere chief executive says: “Any softening in demand matters when refinancing needs are this large and deficits remain this deep.
“Investors need to pay closer attention to the interaction between debt issuance, foreign appetite and market liquidity.”
He says: “There is a tendency to treat US debt as permanently manageable simply because the market is large and the dollar remains dominant.
“But complacency on this scale is risky.”
The issue reaches well beyond the bond market. Persistent heavy borrowing and rising interest costs can keep upward pressure on yields, complicate the outlook for growth and place the dollar under longer-term strain if confidence in the fiscal path weakens.
He concludes: “Skyrocketing US national debt should be one of the central market conversations of 2026.
“It’s bizarrely and dangerously not receiving the attention its scale demands.
“By the time it becomes impossible to ignore, the repricing across assets could already be well under way.”