Retail Sales: Flagging consumer sentiment hits retailers in early trade
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club: “Worries about a deepening energy crisis which is sapping consumer confidence even further, have pushed retailers into the red in early trade. A trio of disappointing indicators has pulled down sentiment, with the latest retail sales snapshot, the closely watched GfK consumer confidence report, and the latest ramp-up in crude prices making for pessimistic reading. Tougher times are ahead for high streets, retail parks and online vendors, as shoppers are expected to tighten their belts while they brace for a barrage of higher household bills.
Although retail sales had been expected to dip back in February after a stronger January performance, and the decline wasn’t quite as deep as expected, it’s still a shaky base from which to deal with the repercussions of war. GfK’s long-running consumer confidence reading came in at the lowest level in 11 months but, crucially, shows a decline in purchasing intentions and indicates people are saving more as a buffer to ride out the uncertainty.
This comes off the back of the OECD also predicting sharply slower growth for the UK this year. It’s little surprise that retailers focused on consumer discretionary spending have been the worst hit in trading today. Next fell 1.6% in early trade and M&S was down by 1.3%. Their large home and clothing ranges are likely to be harder to shift in the current climate. J D Sports and Frasers Group have also dropped as investors assess the hard work ahead in shifting branded sports gear and fashions. B&M European Value Retail is also around 1% lower. While the discount stores also offer value food products, soft furnishings, toys and knick-knacks are likely to be lower-priority purchases.
With confidence weakening, costs rising due to higher freight and energy costs and spending intentions faltering, the outlook for retailers looks set to be an increasing struggle in the months to come.”