Over 1 million young people to be out of meaningful work within two years as UK education system ‘fails loudly’
The UK is set to see over 830,000 young people unemployed and nearly 1.1 million classified as NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training) and hundreds of thousands of graduates trapped in unsuitable jobs within the next two years, according to new analysis by digital skills training experts The Coders Guild.
Drawing on the latest national statistics, the organisation warns that unless urgent reform is made, the current education system will continue to push young people into pathways that do not lead to meaningful employment, while leaving many burdened with debt and limited prospects.
Youth unemployment has already risen to 732,000 (16%), increasing by 99,000 in just one year. If this trajectory continues, the UK could surpass 830,000 unemployed young people by 2028. At the same time, nearly 957,000 young people are currently not in education, employment or training (NEET) – a figure projected to rise beyond 1.05 million within two years.
Compounding the issue, over 36% of graduates are currently underemployed and are working in roles that do not require their qualifications. With approximately 60% of learners continuing into higher education, this suggests that hundreds of thousands more young people each year are entering a system that may not deliver on its promise.
Meanwhile, students are graduating with an average debt of £53,000 in England, with significant regional variation across the UK – raising ‘further concerns’ about long-term financial and career outcomes.
The Coders Guild also reports that over underutilisation of the Apprenticeship Levy saw over £3.3bn in unused funds returned to the Treasury between 2019 and 2022 Employer investment in training has declined 18.5% in real terms since 2011, reducing workforce capability and competitiveness.
Crispin Read, founder of The Coders Guild, argues that the issue is not a failing of individuals, but of a system built around outdated assumptions and that the system was in fact ‘never designed for most people’.
He says: “We already have part of the solution sitting unused. Billions in unspent Apprenticeship Levy funding could be unlocking real skills and opportunity, yet we continue to teach people more and more about less and less, and then verify it worked by testing them in ways that only suit a fraction of the population. That’s not education. That’s selection”.
According to Read, the education system prioritises proof of teaching over proof of learning, relying heavily on exam-based assessment models that date back generations.
“The entire machine is built to prove that teaching happened, not that learning was effective, or that a career was built, or that a person developed. We’re measuring the wrong things.
“For decades young people have been encouraged down a linear path: work hard in school, attend university, and secure a stable career. However, current data suggests that this promise is increasingly out of reach.”
With more than half of A-level students still planning to attend university and around 60% of Level 3 learners progressing to degrees, the system continues to funnel the majority into academic routes, despite growing evidence that these pathways do not suit everyone.
At the same time, alternative routes are gaining traction. Apprenticeships now attract around 25% of A-level students, up from 15% in recent years, with over 353,500 starts annually in England. However, these pathways remain underrepresented relative to traditional academic options.
Read adds: “Social mobility doesn’t begin in lecture halls, but in small businesses, where real-world skills, close mentorship, and early exposure to meaningful work intersect to create career pathways often overlooked by traditional education routes. These environments not only build practical capability, but also provide access, confidence and progression opportunities for young people who may otherwise be left behind by conventional systems.”
The Coders Guild emphasises that responsibility does not lie with educators, but with the structure they operate within.
The current model continues to favour a relatively small proportion of learners who thrive in exam-based environments, while others are left behind, redirected, or pushed into unsuitable pathways.
The result is a widening disconnect between education and employment – one that risks leaving over a million young people without clear direction, while employers continue to report skills shortages across key industries, particularly in digital and technical roles.
The Coders Guild is calling for a fundamental rethink of how success is defined and measured in education, including:
- Greater emphasis on practical, career-aligned skills
- Broader recognition of alternative pathways such as apprenticeships and digital training
- A shift away from exam-centric assessment models
- Stronger links between education providers and industry
- Without meaningful change, the organisation warns, the UK risks continuing to produce generations of young people who are qualified on paper, but unprepared for the realities of modern work