OpenAI IPO: A trillion-dollar stress test for the AI investment model
OpenAI appears to be entering one of the key stages of its evolution — the transition to the public market. As the company reportedly prepares for its upcoming IPO, it is already testing demand among private investors while scaling its financing and forming a new financial model for the entire artificial intelligence sector.
CFO Sarah Friar explicitly confirmed that a portion of the shares will be offered to retail investors. According to her, interest from individual investors turned out to be significantly higher than expected. As part of a recent experiment, $3 billion worth of securities were sold through banking channels, which was three times the planned volume. This strategy reflects the company’s desire to transform AI into not only a technological narrative, but also into a mass-market investment opportunity, similar to what previously happened with SpaceX.
The financial foundation for the IPO has already been established. In the latest funding round, OpenAI raised $122 billion, surpassing the $110 billion target and bringing the company’s valuation to $852 billion. Key investors include SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia, with a significant portion of this capital effectively returning to the industry through the purchase of computing power and accelerators. This model of cross-financing is becoming a characteristic feature of the entire AI sector.
At the same time, the scale of future expenses remains the main risk factor. According to the data, the company plans to achieve profitability only by 2030, when annual revenue may approach $300 billion. Until then, OpenAI intends to allocate capital in amounts comparable to, or even higher than, its current revenue for infrastructure development and model training. For example, by 2028, annual expenses may reach $121 billion, with the company effectively reinvesting 100% of its revenue into ongoing development over the coming years.
This imbalance between revenue and costs forces the company to rethink its strategy. In recent months, OpenAI has abandoned several secondary initiatives, including the Sora video generator, and has become more cautious about infrastructure expansion. Even within the framework of the large-scale Stargate initiative, some projects are transferred to partners like Microsoft to reduce the direct capital burden and redistribute risks.
A separate area of transformation is related to the change in revenue structure. While corporate clients currently account for 40% of revenue, that figure is expected to hit 50% by year-end. In the long term, the company plans to simultaneously develop the consumer segment, which by 2030 can bring up to $150 billion, and the corporate segment, which can exceed $100 billion. In contrast, Anthropic relies primarily on business clients, which ensures more predictable cash flows and inspires greater confidence among some investors, potentially paving the way more effectively for an Anthropic IPO.
In this context, the OpenAI IPO becomes not just another placement, but a test of the sustainability of the entire AI investment model. The participation of retail investors, the growing debt and quasi-debt burden, as well as dependence on major technology partners, are forming a new configuration of the capital market. If the company proves its ability to convert current technological growth into sustainable profits, its listing could bring the capitalization closer to the symbolic $1 trillion mark. Otherwise, the market may face a severe reassessment of an industry where expectations currently outpace realized financial indicators.