Prime Day forecast: $27.6bn US, £2.4bn UK. But could rivals’ growth mean Amazon’s reached its Prime?
Amazon has confirmed that Prime Day will be a month earlier than usual this year. Prime Day will be held in June, rather than July, for the first time since 2021. The home delivery expert Parcelhero predicts this will be the biggest Prime Day yet, with sales reaching $27.6bn (£20.4bn) in the US and £2.4bn ($3.2bn) in the UK.
Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks MILT, says: ‘Amazon revealed last year’s event was the biggest Prime Day ever. Despite its name, it was the first Prime Day to run over four days (8-11 July, 2025). The e-commerce giant has not publicly released figures for last year’s sale, however, it stated at the time: “This year’s Prime Day event was bigger than any previous four-day period that included a Prime Day event, with record sales and more items sold during the four days.”
“Analysis from Statista reveals Prime Day sales 2025 achieved around $23.8bn (£17.5bn), while Prime Day sales in the UK alone reached £2.08bn ($2.8bn). That’s a slightly different US figure to Adobe’s widely quoted estimate of $24.1bn (£17.8bn). However, Adobe says its figure was for sales across US retail sites, rather than for Amazon alone.
“All the signs are that, despite global conflict potentially hitting consumer confidence, Amazon is expecting bumper sales again this year. Its Q1 2026 net sales were up 16.6% and the retailer expects net sales between $194bn-$199bn for Q2, including Prime Day. That implies Q2 growth of 16%-19% Year-on-Year. That means that, even taking its lowest growth estimate, we may expect to see Prime Day achieve $27.6bn for Amazon in the US and £2.41bn here in the UK.
“Although Amazon has not yet named the dates, the week beginning 22 June would match the only other year Amazon has staged the event so early in the summer. Given Prime Day events are normally launched on a Tuesday, we believe 23-26 June are the most likely dates for the-four day event, although it may launch a week earlier.
“Amazon says that, last year, Prime members saved billions on deals across more than 35 product categories – more savings than any previous Prime Day event. UK merchants selling on Amazon will be looking to get a large slice of this extra spending and their prospects look good. According to Amazon, independent sellers – most of which are small and medium-sized businesses – hit new milestones in both sales and items sold last year.
“However, there are growing signs that Amazon will have trouble continuing to grow its Prime events and retail sales at the same pace in the future. In the UK, it faces increasing competition from Chinese marketplaces. Temu is one such contender. As of September 2025, Temu UK reported revenue nearly doubling to $63.3m (£46.8m) from $32m in 2023. Temu was the most downloaded general shopping app in the UK last year, according to the market research experts Statista.
“Plus, there’s a new kid on the block that further threatens Amazon’s dominance. The e-commerce platform Joybuy launched in the UK this March, offering products across tech, appliances, beauty, home, grocery and everyday essentials, with competitive prices on many well-known brands. Joybuy is owned by the Chinese retail juggernaut JD.com, which has some financial muscle behind it. JD.com’s revenues reached around £141bn ($191bn) last year.
“Joybuy’s USP is its “Double 11” service. If shoppers order by 11am, they receive their items before 11pm. So far, its Double 11 service is only available in London, Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham, Oxford and Cambridge, but that’s expected to widen rapidly. Says Joybuy:“By owning the process from the warehouse to the front door, we’re making same-day delivery the new standard.”
“With new threats like this emerging, Amazon’s days of preeminence may be coming to a close. However, many people have prophesied Amazon’s demise in the past and been proved wrong. Amazon is also continually innovating to ensure it remains competitive.
“As one example, Amazon has just launched its first commercial drone delivery service in the UK, Prime Air, operating in the Darlington area. Were this service available nationwide, it would eclipse Joybuy’s Double 11 promise, as Amazon claims its drone service delivers within two hours. However, Prime Air is currently a very niche service relying on customers being near an Amazon distribution centre with the right mix of urban development without too many high-rise buildings. Don’t hold your breath for a rapid expansion of its drone services in the UK.
“Far more impressive in reality is Amazon’s move to open up its transportation, distribution and fulfilment services to any business that wants to use it. Amazon Supply Chain Services is an end-to-end third-party logistics (3PL) service that opens its huge freight, warehousing and delivery network to all businesses across all industries. Leading brands such as Procter & Gamble, 3M, Lands’ End and American Eagle Outfitters have already signed up.
“What will the ultimate impact of Amazon’s continuing innovation and new Chinese e-commerce platforms be in the UK? Parcelhero’s latest retail industry report is out now. “2030: The High Street Fights Back?” is the sequel to our 2016 report “2030: The Death of the High Street”. As our report highlights, the continued rise of e-commerce means many more shops have closed than opened in the decade since our first white paper, especially in key sectors such as department stores. The High Street may not have reached a dead end by 2030 but, in this new age of retail, it will have arrived at its biggest crossroads. You can read and download our full new report for free at https://newsroom.parcelhero.com/the-high-street-fights-back-final.pdf