Hormuz tolls are coming. So is a new tax on the world’s energy
Tolls in the Strait of Hormuz now look almost impossible to avoid. Should they land, the world would be paying a new tax on energy itself, and everyone from investors to households would feel it.
This is the warning from financial advisory giant deVere Group’s CEO Nigel Green as oil markets extend Monday’s biggest one-day surge since the pandemic era, with Brent crude climbing further past $85 a barrel on Tuesday after President Trump announced a 20% fee on cargo transiting the strait alongside a renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports.
He says: “Whoever wins this fight over the toll, the bill lands on everyone else. About a fifth of the world’s oil and gas moves through Hormuz. Add a 20% charge on that and you’ve taxed global energy, full stop, no matter whose flag is on the toll booth.”
Iran’s foreign minister insists Tehran, not Washington, controls the strait and deserves compensation for safe passage.
The United Nations’ maritime agency says there is no legal basis for either side to impose mandatory fees. Nigel Green says the legal argument barely matters anymore.
He says: “Two governments are fighting over who gets to run the toll booth. The rest of the world just pays whoever wins. Nobody in international hubs around the world cares if the flag is American or Iranian. They care that moving energy through one of the planet’s most important chokepoints just got a lot more expensive, and it might stay that way.”
Industry estimates suggest a fee at the proposed rate could add roughly $16 a barrel to crude shipped through the strait, and as much as $32 million to a single supertanker’s costs, dwarfing anything Iran had previously tried to charge. Traffic through Hormuz has already dropped by more than 50% over the past week.
Nigel Green says the toll fight is landing on top of a supply picture that had only just started looking healthier.
He says: “Everyone was forecasting an oil surplus in June, once the ceasefire held. Throw that out. A toll fight adds cost to every barrel and keeps ships sitting outside the strait instead of moving through it. Call that a shortage by another name.”
The deVere CEO believes insurers, not courts, generals or diplomats, will decide how this actually plays out.
He says: “Skip the legal arguments, insurers move first. Premiums on Hormuz transits are already several times normal. Mix a toll in with sanctions risk and underwriters just stop writing cover. No insurance, no voyage. It won’t matter what either government announces.”
Nigel Green warns the fallout will not stay contained to tankers and traders.
He says: “This becomes a tax on diesel at the pump, a tax on fertiliser, a tax on the plastic in everything you buy, a tax on your electricity bill if your grid still burns gas.
“People thousands of miles from the Gulf will feel this long before any lawyer settles who had the right to charge it.”
He concludes: “Investors keep treating Hormuz disruption as a spike that fades once the fighting stops. This time, for me, looks different.
“Once a toll exists in practice, taking it away again becomes its own political fight. I would price this as a permanent cost of moving global energy, not a headline that blows over.”