Uncertainty adds nearly $2tn to global construction costs
Confidence in the global construction sector has fallen sharply over the past year, as organisations battle escalating cost pressures, supply chain disruption and persistent geopolitical instability.
That’s according to new global research from Currie & Brown, the world-leading provider of cost management, project management and advisory services. The firm’s annual Construction Certainty Index surveyed more than 1,300 construction and infrastructure decision-makers across the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific.
The research found that uncertainty has added on average 12.4% to respondents’ construction pipeline costs over the past 12 months. Applied to forecast global construction spending, this represents almost US$2 trillion in 2026 – close to the annual economic output of Brazil and enough to build 2,000 hospitals.
Why confidence is falling – and set to worsen
This decline in confidence reflects the mounting pressures facing project teams. According to the research, confidence has fallen across every measure tracked, with the sharpest declines in the two areas that matter most to project viability – time and budget.
Seven in ten (70%) respondents identified material cost inflation as having a high impact on project delivery, 64% identified energy price volatility and 59% supply chain disruption. Economic policy change (56%) and labour and skills shortages (54%) are also significant factors. These risks are closely connected and can amplify one another, increasing the overall pressure on project costs and delivery. Concerningly, organisations expect most of these risks to worsen over the next 12 to 24 months – with 65% expecting material cost inflation to intensify further, and 58% expecting the same of energy price volatility.
The consequences are already being felt across project delivery. On average, respondents report that 30% of projects have been delayed over the past year and 27% have been descoped. On average, 31% of potential projects have not started, or progressed beyond planning as a result of uncertainty.
A blueprint for certainty
Despite a challenging outlook, the research identifies a distinct group of organisations reporting consistently higher levels of delivery confidence and experiencing fewer severe impacts from uncertainty.
Representing around 32% of respondents, these ‘higher maturity’ organisations continue to invest strategically through periods of uncertainty, building capability in the areas associated with stronger decision-making, including:
- greater use of AI to identify, monitor or mitigate risk
- digital technologies to influence project and asset decisions
- data analytics to mitigate uncertainty
- embedding sustainability into project delivery
- investing consistently in skills and training.
The research finds that these higher-maturity organisations are considerably more confident that they will hit their targets, with 58% feeling confident they will meet deadlines, and 47% confident of staying within budget compared to 41% and 36% of the rest of the sample, respectively. Just 26% report cancellations affecting a 25% or more of their pipeline, against 40% for the rest of the sample – a difference of more than a third.
This gap is evidence that targeted capability building can improve resilience and better insulate organisations from sector shocks.
Dr Alan Manuel, group chief executive officer at Currie & Brown, said: “An extra $2tn of cost to build the world’s homes, hospitals and critical infrastructure adds up to projects that arrive late, break budget, are scaled back, or never get built at all.
“Organisations can’t afford to lurch from one crisis to the next or simply wait for calmer conditions. Those that are resilient to uncertainty share common characteristics. They’re investing in the people, technology and data that enable them to gain an earlier, clearer view of where they are exposed – and the judgement and skills they need to take action. Embedding this approach is how certainty is built.”
The full 2026 Construction Certainty Index explores the drivers of uncertainty, its impact, and how organisations can better build resilience.