ASML’s 2030 queue shows AI hitting a production wall: deVere CEO
ASML’s customers are already queuing for machines to be delivered in 2030, showing the AI boom can only move as fast as its equipment can be built, however much money is pledged, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.
The warning from Nigel Green, deVere Group CEO, comes as the Dutch chipmaking equipment giant, whose machines every advanced chip depends on, says it is exploring ways to lift 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase it had already planned.
“Everyone’s focused on how much money is pouring into AI,” says Nigel Green.
“The more useful question is how fast it can actually be spent, and that comes down to how many of these machines get built each year.
“A trillion-dollar pledge doesn’t mean much if the equipment won’t turn up until 2030.
“Only one company in the world can make the machines the most advanced chips depend on, and there’s a limit to how many it can build.
“You can raise all the capital you like, but if the equipment isn’t there, the money sits and waits.”
Buyers enquiring about delivery slots four years out show how tight the bottleneck has become. ASML is the sharpest example, but the same squeeze runs through power grid connections, electrical equipment and the specialist workforce needed to build and run data centres.
“When a buyer is asking about machines for 2030, they’re telling you how long the queue is,” says the deVere CEO.
“Some of this year’s AI plans will get stretched out, and some will quietly shrink.”
Nigel Green says this should change how large AI pledges from governments and tech giants are read.
Much of the spending depends on equipment, power and production slots that haven’t been secured yet, which pushes back the timetable for data centres and the returns investors expect from them.
ASML’s decision to raise the lower end of its 2026 sales forecast shows demand is holding firm.
It also confirms how much pricing power now sits with whoever controls a bottleneck.
“Money can buy a lot in this market, but it can’t buy a machine that hasn’t been built yet,” he says.
“The companies that locked in their slots early have an edge their rivals will struggle to close, however much they spend.
“Every AI plan in the world now runs to the same clock, and writing a bigger cheque won’t make it tick any faster.”