Markets steady despite Middle East tensions, Budget rumours swirl and Airtel Money’s revenue surge
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club: ‘’Stormy weather may still be causing chaos across parts of the UK, but the clouds have lifted for London’s FTSE 100 after a downcast performance last week. Wall Street also looks set to see a pause in the recent wave of selling, but investors are still skittish given inflation concerns and ongoing jitters about AI-focused valuations.
Airtel Money’s compelling growth story is gathering pace, with the company attracting millions more users across Africa. The mobile money business reported a 25% rise in revenue to $830m and profit after tax climbing to $228m from $188m in its maiden results since its London listing. Its customer base has expanded to 56.7 million, as digital payments continue to gain ground across a continent at the forefront of mobile money innovation.
London’s market may have breathed a sigh of relief at getting this long-awaited IPO over the line, particularly after the loss of high-profile growth companies to overseas exchanges, but the shares are still trading below their 196p offer price. That may partly reflect the need for investors to get comfortable with the valuation and the path ahead, rather than a lack of faith in the underlying growth story. EBITDA margins did narrow, to 48% from 50.8%, partly reflecting changes to intra-group agreements, but management expects them to strengthen in the second half. With average revenue per user rising and transaction values increasing, there are encouraging signs that customers are using the service more intensively as well as in greater numbers. Competition from established players such as M-Pesa will remain fierce, but Airtel Money has a powerful foothold in a fast-growing market. The next test is whether it can turn that expanding reach into stronger margins and sustained growth, helping to cement London’s credentials as a home for ambitious fintech businesses.
Energy prices remain uncomfortably high, but Brent crude has retreated a little from Friday’s scorching levels, with the benchmark hovering around $115 a barrel. The partial reopening of Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport appears to have offered some respite, but the risk of fresh attacks from Houthi forces remains high given the escalating conflict in the region. The unwelcome metamorphosis of the war with Iran into a wider Middle East conflict is set to keep crude prices elevated, especially given fears of renewed US attacks on Iranian infrastructure after the mid-term elections. Nevertheless, supplies are still getting out of the region, with flows having recovered near to pre-war levels, but with tensions high and the prospect of further military action ahead, energy markets are set to stay volatile.
A calm of sorts has descended on gilt markets, with bond investors appearing a little more supportive of buying UK government debt, despite the uncertainty of the Budget looming. The chancellor isn’t expected to pull many rabbits out of the hat on Wednesday, given the conditions are far from clement for surprise giveaways, with government borrowing again rising more than expected last month to £24.5bn. Ten-year gilt yields have retreated a little, with the UK market benefiting to some extent from the protests which have roiled France, triggering fresh nervousness about European fiscal stability. Nevertheless, UK government borrowing costs remain around two-decade highs, exacerbated by conflicts sending the price of energy soaring and the prospect of multiple rate hikes from the Bank of England.
Although the government has claimed it intends to be more supportive to business, many company owners are still bracing for more tricks rather than treats from the chancellor’s Budget. While rumours of a fresh capital gains tax raid have been quashed, speculation is centring around Business Asset Disposal Relief, formerly Entrepreneurs’ Relief, which now looks in line for yet another shake-up. There are reports that the current tax break, used by retiring business owners, is set to be significantly scaled back again, with a new tax incentive potentially offering a break to those who reinvest the proceeds of a business sale into other UK businesses.
The idea might look good on paper – as it’s aimed at funnelling more proceeds of a business sale towards other start-ups and scale-ups – but it creates more uncertainty for owners and investors. Wealth Club’s pre-budget survey of wealthy investors found 16% are considering moving abroad because of tax changes over the last few years, and constant changes to the tax landscape risk driving away the investment and wealth the economy needs.
For many founders, their business is their pension. They have spent years building a company, taking risks, creating jobs and investing their own money, often sacrificing income along the way. The eventual sale is the moment when they realise the value of all that hard work, and if these changes are introduced, they could potentially eat into those proceeds.
The chancellor is also reportedly considering making online marketplaces such as Amazon and eBay responsible for collecting VAT from retailers selling through their platforms, including UK-based sellers with annual turnover above £90,000. The move could help level the playing field for high street shops and potentially fund business rates cuts. It would also come on top of previously announced changes to the taxation of small packages, aimed at closing loopholes that have allowed overseas retailers to undercut UK businesses with cheaper goods shipped directly to consumers.
While ministers have tried to sow the message that this Budget will be broadly business-friendly, it looks set to be targeted at the start-up scene and owners of smaller companies trying to compete with big global players. While the concept may appear laudable, there are likely to be unintended consequences. Capital needs confidence to flow freely, and constant tinkering with the tax landscape sends out the wrong message. While supporting fledgling businesses is essential, the UK also needs to attract big flows of investment to provide vital nourishment to bigger homegrown players. This means creating the conditions for capital to flow into the economy, not making investors question whether the ground beneath them will shift just as they commit their money.”