Plummeting figures show the aftermath of Stamp Duty changes
The latest HPI data from e.surv and Acadata highlights a significant increase in transaction volumes in the lead-up to the stamp duty rise for first-time buyers (Figure 1), but also spotlights that the impact on market prices has been much more muted.
Figure 1. Stamp duty changes distort the monthly pattern of activity
In May, the average sale price of a home in England and Wales dipped slightly by just 0.1% compared to the previous month—the smallest monthly decline in seven months. On an annual basis, prices fell by 1.4%, bringing the average home value to £357,913.
The plummeting transaction figures amid this aftershock are likely to continue for some months, with evidence suggesting that sellers and buyers have been settling on lower prices to compensate, in part, for the higher tax burden.
Rob Owens, head of research at e.surv, commented: “Despite the tax-driven slowdown, there are signs of resilience. Eased mortgage affordability rules and expectations of falling interest rates could help offset affordability pressures, especially in the South.
“While the market remains soft in the short term, these developments suggest a more positive outlook for the second half of 2025.”
Regionally, London continues to experience the steepest declines (-5% annual change), though the pace of these falls is easing. Meanwhile, northern regions and the Midlands, which had previously hit record highs, are now seeing slight price corrections (Table 2).
Table 2. Average Prices in the English regions and Wales, April 2025
For more information, visit: https://www.esurv.co.uk/category/insight/house-price-index/