England and Wales HPI indicates a strengthening market through second half of 2025
The latest HPI data from e.surv and Acadata spotlights how the housing market showed signs of stabilising in June, as average prices held month-on-month at a steady £358,000 This could indicate that the recent period of modest price decline may be ending, although house prices are reported as 1.3% lower than the same time last year (Figure. 1), which hasn’t varied much over recent months.
A key factor in this stabilisation is the change of tone across the capital, which has generally acted as a significant drag on the overall national price metrics. In May, for the first time in 18 months, the influence of London on the broader price decline in England and Wales was minimal, contributing just a -0.2% annual change despite a 2.7% monthly rise.
Looking at transaction data, the distortions to the usual monthly pattern (caused by changes in stamp duty) have begun to unwind in England, with the latest HMRC figures showing a partial revival in activity from May as buyers returned to the market after the tax changes.
Rob Owens, head of research at e.surv, commented: “Looking ahead, easing mortgage affordability rules and expectations of interest rate cuts could support demand, especially in London and the South.
“The Spending Review focused on the social rented sector, with further details on home ownership support expected later this year. If combined with rising mortgage approvals and improving sentiment, the market could finish 2025 on a stronger note.”
Figure 1. England and Wales remains in neutral