Calm before the storm or storm in a teacup? US tariffs have little impact on UK’s transport sector.
In a new government survey, 82% of UK transport & storage companies say that new US tariffs had no impact on their business last month. Just 3.4% say they created extra costs, fewer than any comparable business sector. New US tariffs may have dealt less of a blow to UK transport & storage sector firms than first feared, says the international delivery expert Parcelhero.
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business Insights Survey reveals that 82% of the UK’s transportation & storage sector businesses (the category that includes logistics, parcels, haulage and warehousing firms) say that the new US trade tariffs had no impact on their business during September. Only 3.4% of transport & storage sector companies report that they experienced extra costs because of the tariffs, compared to 6.3% of UK retailers and a significant 11.5% of UK manufacturers.
The international delivery expert Parcelhero says that, now the shock waves are subsiding, transport & storage sector businesses appear – on the surface – to have been less impacted than expected by this year’s new US tariffs. The storm of new tariffs started with US president Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff hikes on 2 April.
Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks MILT, says: ‘The latest Business Insights Survey, held between 15-28 September, reveals that the impact of new US tariffs did not have the disastrous consequences for UK transport & storage sector firms that some experts had feared. Remember, these responses also follow the ending of the USA’s de minimis exemption on low-value goods on 29 August. Before this date, goods valued at $800 (around £600) or less could enter the US duty free from the UK and many other countries. We might have expected the ending of this loophole to have had a more significant impact.
‘Other industry sectors have had to respond in different ways to the introduction of the new tariffs. For example, 3.9% of UK retailers and a hefty 8.6% of manufacturers reported that they had passed on the impact of the new tariffs to their customers – presumably those based in the US. However, 0% of transport & storage sector firms who responded said that they had taken this measure.
‘That’s not to say that the new “Trump tariffs” have not affected UK businesses as a whole. It remains to be seen what their full impact will be. Britain successfully negotiated a 10% tariff deal, which is the lowest tier of duties imposed by the US, largely because of the near parity in the US-UK trade balance. Even so, an increase of 10% has been enough to significantly reduce demand in some sectors. For example, due to US tariffs, 12% of manufacturers and 4.2% of retailers reported reduced demand for their products in September, leading to a 3.3% fall in demand for transport & storage sector companies’ services.
‘The US is Britain’s largest single overseas market and, last year, around 39,500 UK VAT-registered businesses exported goods there. This means any change to the trading relationship is bound to affect British companies large and small. The inevitable result of increased costs and lower demand was that some UK firms quit selling to America entirely. In September, 2.8% of UK manufacturers and 4.1% of retailers revealed they had stopped or paused their exports to the USA, though no transport & storage business reported having completely suspended US services.
‘Of course, we know that some major UK businesses, such as Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), were severely hit by the initial round of tariffs and were forced to temporarily suspend sales to the US while they reassessed their strategy. This is reflected in the higher level of impact from US tariffs on manufacturers and retailers compared to transport & storage sector companies. However, the transport & storage sector doesn’t operate in a vacuum; the success of all three sectors is woven together. Manufacturers and retailers can’t succeed without their transport & storage partners and vice versa. Therefore, transport & storage firms will be keeping a close eye on the results of manufacturers and retailers going forward, to ensure there is no further dip in UK exports to the US. There is still the possibility that this survey is merely showing the calm before the storm.
‘Whatever the ongoing impact of US tariff reforms and the repeal of its de minimis rules, we are inevitably looking at a period of continuing volatility and changes to US shipments. The US is Parcelhero’s biggest individual overseas market. Live information on US courier services, as well as plenty of advice on shipping to America, can be seen at https://www.parcelhero.com/en-gb/international-courier-services/usa-parcel-delivery