Confidence rises as trade outlook improves

22/05/2025

Fieldwork conducted on 06-09 May 2025

According to BRC-Opinium data, consumer expectations over the next three months of:

The state of the economy improved to -36 in May, up from -48 in April.
Their personal financial situation improved to -12 in May, up from -16 in April.
Their personal spending on retail fell to 0 in May, down from +3 in April.
Their personal spending overall remained at +10 in May, the same as in April.
Their personal saving fell slightly to -5 in May, down from -4 in April.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Consumer confidence improved as UK economic growth picked up and geopolitical tensions eased as the US-China trade war began to cool, however, it remains far below levels seen last year. The over-60s saw the biggest improvement, up almost 20 points, though they are still the most pessimistic of all generations. This may reflect the stock market recovery after the turbulence caused by a slew of US tariff announcements. Overall spending expectations stayed at similar levels for a third consecutive month, while expectations of retail spend dropped slightly.

“Only weeks ago, consumers were facing uncertainty arising from President Trump’s announcement of eye-watering tariffs on many countries. Fast forward to today, the UK has trade deals with some of the world’s largest economies. While agreements with the US and India may have helped this month’s boost in consumer confidence, it is hoped the latest EU deal will drive further confidence in the outlook for the economy and personal finances. There is more the UK can do to encourage spending and trade: reintroducing a tax-free shopping scheme would attract more highvalue shoppers from abroad, benefitting retail, hospitality, and leisure, and creating employment opportunities and boosting economic growth.”

Consumer expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months: