Holiday profits are in danger, friendly fraud is about to hit its peak
Each year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday spark a global sales frenzy, with the latter being the biggest online shopping day on record in 2024. According to Adobe’s online shopping forecast for the 2025 holiday season, online sales in the U.S. alone are expected to surpass $250bn this year. But according to Chargebacks911, a global leader in dispute resolution and chargeback prevention, the projected increase in online sales will also open the gates to the most aggressive dispute season retailers have seen in years. The company warns that many merchants in the US and UK are heading into peak holiday sales without a clear defence against friendly fraud, billing confusion and consumers who now treat banks as their first point of contact when anything feels off.
This year, consumers are not only shopping more online but also expecting immediate resolutions when something goes wrong. According to Chargebacks911’s 2025 Cardholder Dispute Index, 76% of consumers admit they would rather go straight to their bank than contact a merchant. If a delivery doesn’t arrive on time or a purchase slips their memory, many hit the dispute button on their mobile banking app without hesitation and treat their bank like a one-click refund route. According to experts, this is considered chargeback misuse or abuse – also known as ‘friendly fraud’ – which LexisNexis has reported has surpassed scams as the leading form of global attacks for merchants.
Chargebacks911 says that without proactive dispute prevention, retailers may lose revenue after the fact, even if they win sales on the front end.
“Too many retailers think the battle ends at checkout,” said Monica Eaton, founder of Chargebacks911. “The real fight starts after the sale, when consumers begin disputing charges they barely remember. If you have not prepared your dispute defense before Black Friday, you are gambling with your margins.”
Eaton highlights a set of recurring scenarios that are likely to spike during the holidays:
- A package arrives slower than expected during peak congestion, and the customer files a dispute before checking their tracking link.
- A shopper forgets a late-night impulse purchase; sees a billing name they do not recognize and flags it as fraud with their bank.
- A refund takes longer than 48 hours to appear, and the customer files a dispute to “speed things up.”
- A cardholder files a dispute simply because they did not recognize the billing descriptor.
Eaton says these patterns are already visible in dispute data and are expected to intensify as transaction volume rises across the US and UK.
To prepare for the 2025 holiday surge, Eaton recommends retailers take the following steps to secure the post-transaction phase:
- Align billing descriptors with brand identity so customers immediately recognize charges.
- Proactively communicate delivery timelines and provide tracking updates before customers become uncertain.
- Make refund and return options easy to find and clearly explained to prevent disputes being used as a shortcut.
- Deploy dispute alerts and automated response workflows to catch challenges early and preserve revenue.
Chargebacks911 says that retailers who prepare now will not only protect their Black Friday revenue but also build a stronger position going into 2025. The company believes that dispute prevention must sit alongside checkout optimization as a core pillar of holiday readiness.
To access the full 2025 Cardholder Dispute Index, visit https://chargebacks911.com/cardholder-dispute-index.