Prime Day could top $21bn globally and £1.9bn in the UK – but is that entirely good news?
The home delivery expert Parcelhero is forecasting that Amazon’s 4-day Prime sale will turn over $21.4bn globally and nearly £2bn in the UK. Parcelhero says consumers and marketplace sellers are set to benefit from the longest-ever Prime Day bonanza. However, it warns that Amazon’s ever-increasing UK presence brings downsides as well as benefits.
Amazon’s longest-ever Prime Day sale (8-11 July) kicks off tomorrow. The home delivery expert Parcelhero says the 96-hour bonanza is largely good news for small traders on Amazon as well as for shoppers looking to make significant savings. However, it cautions Amazon’s continued UK growth isn’t entirely positive news for Britain’s shoppers and sellers.
Parcelhero’s head of consumer research, David Jinks MILT, says: ‘The Bank of America calculates Prime Day could bring in over $21.4bn in GMV (gross merchandise value), which is the total value of goods sold before any deductions. That’s roughly a 60% gain year-over-year.
‘There’s little doubt that both shoppers and sellers are set to gain from the midsummer madness of Prime Day. Last year, Amazon’s Prime Day revenue was around $14.2bn (according to figures from Statista) in the US and £1.2bn in the UK, according to Parcelhero’s own research. Amazon sold more than 100,000 items per minute during last year’s sale.
‘While sales of Amazon’s own inventory are expected to rise 55% to $11.5bn globally, the good news for smaller traders is that its worldwide third-party sales could grow 67% to $10bn. That’s encouraging for marketplace traders and SME sellers as, last year, independent sellers (mostly small and medium-sized businesses) sold more than 200 million items during the event.
‘Crucially, if the prediction of 60% overall growth made by Bank of America analysts holds good for the UK as well, total UK sales over the four days could reach over £1.92bn.
‘That would be good news for consumers as well as sellers, as Amazon calculated that in 2023 Prime Day shoppers globally saved a whopping $2.5bn against pre-event prices.
‘The US finance expert Marketwatch says the motivation for the four-day long sale is likely to be Trump’s tariffs. The thinking is that a strong event now might help to offset a bumpy second half of the year, if tariffs start to impact US consumers. Of course, other countries such as the UK aren’t facing the same issues, but we are still one of over 20 markets set to benefit from the four day-global bonanza.
‘It’s expected that some of the major offers will be revealed on the final two days of the sale, in order to maintain the profile of the event and ensure shoppers remain engaged.
‘The four-day sale is just one of the ways in which Amazon is continuing to raise its market share on this side of the Pond. It recently announced plans to invest £40bn in the UK over the next three years. This investment includes building four new fulfilment centres, new delivery stations nationwide, two new buildings at its corporate HQ in East London and ongoing improvements to Amazon’s transportation infrastructure.
‘However, as Amazon’s e-commerce dominance continues to grow, smaller traders could be at risk of becoming over-dependent on the platform. If anything goes wrong with the relationship then that could be a big problem for sellers, especially if they have put all their eggs in the Amazon basket. Amazon can and will delist, suspend or even ban sellers who violate its policies. Additionally, sellers can also be delisted if their products are deemed “CRaP”! That’s Amazon’s internal-speak for Cannot Realise a Profit.
‘That’s not the only area that could leave suppliers vulnerable. Amazon is facing an official investigation by the UK’s grocery watchdog over its treatment of suppliers. The Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA) has announced it is probing whether Amazon has breached industry rules designed to protect suppliers. Reportedly, the investigation will particularly look at the brand’s payment practices.
‘The investigation follows the shock results of the GCA’s 2024 annual survey, which revealed less than half of respondents directly supplying Amazon believed that it consistently or mostly complies with the Groceries Supply Code of Practice. Amazon’s perceived code compliance score slipped from 59% to 47% last year, placing it firmly at the bottom of the table.
‘So Amazon continues to be a pioneer in e-commerce and will undoubtedly offer significant bargains for Prime members during its four-day sale. That spells good news, of course, for small merchants participating in the event. However, for some traders who may become overdependent on the Amazon ecosphere and events such as Prime Day, there are definitely risks involved.
‘Back in 2015, when the first Prime Day sale was held, Parcelhero published a far-sighted report, successfully predicting a number of other tactics Amazon was developing to ensure its future as the pipeline through which everything is bought. These tactics included drone deliveries, smart doorbell drop-offs and the expansion of Amazon Logistics as a courier for companies beyond Amazon. What’s next? With tech such as 3D printing waiting in the wings, there’s a lot more to come. Read the full report at: https://www.parcelhero.com/content/downloads/pdfs/amazon/amazons-prime-ambition-parcelhero-industry-report.pdf