Small businesses most at risk from tax rises in the Autumn Budget
UK small businesses would be most at risk if various taxes were to go up in the Autumn Budget, according to new research from Novuna Business Finance, conducted a week before the Autumn Budget.
Although there have been many warnings on the fragility of UK small businesses from the business community, this new research from Novuna Business Finance asked a nationally representative sample of 2,000 consumers about their views on the Autumn Budget later this week.
Whilst UK adults said that lower energy bills (66%), a cheaper weekly food shop (62%) and lower taxes (44%) were the top three possible outcomes from the Autumn Budget that would be most welcomed by UK households – many people also feared for the position of small businesses in their community.
Asked which areas of the economy would be most at risk if various taxes go up in this week’s Autumn Budget, 58% of UK adults cited concern for small businesses across the UK. Following this, 48% of respondents said pubs and restaurants would be at risk, followed by high street shops (47%), self-employed individuals or sole traders (43%), farmers (36%) and music venues (20%).
Public concern for small businesses extended across all corners of the UK – with people in East Anglia (65%), Scotland (63%), the North East (60%) and Yorkshire (60%) most worried about the impact of the Autumn Budget on the small businesses in their region, if the tax burden is increased.
Further, reflecting on the over-riding national priority to support an economic recovery in the UK, the new consumer poll also asked members of the general public which sectors they thought the Government should prioritise supporting with investment. Here, UK manufacturing came top (35%), followed by the hospitality sector (31%), agriculture (28%) and retail (27%).
The findings are from a new insight report from Novuna Business Finance – ‘Christmas trading and the Autumn Budget’– a study which examines small business growth outlook from a range of perspectives during the final months of 2025.
The new consumer research findings mirror Novuna’s Q4 research among 1,000 small business owners, which reveals that 86% of small businesses fear the possibility of Autumn Budget announcements that, in their view, could adversely impact their plans for growth. Following the impact of last year’s National Insurance rise, many small businesses (59%) fear the impact of further rises here. The prospect of increases to VAT (50%), income tax (50%) and fuel duty (37%) were also top concerns – with 37% also fearing the business impact on any further taxes on diesel or petrol vehicles. With rumours already circulating on possible Budget raids on pensions, this is also a major worry to more than a third of small business owners (34%).
These findings come at a time when the percentage of small business owners forecasting growth for the final three months of 2025 has fallen for the fourth consecutive Quarter to a new five-year low of 25% – a sharp fall from 35% this time last year.
Joanna Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance comments: “The broad-based levels of public support for UK small businesses are a recognition of the important role they are seen to play in communities across the UK – in terms of driving economic growth, creating jobs and supporting community projects. The last four quarters have seen consecutive falls in small business confidence and our new research suggests small businesses cannot keep absorbing market pressures to their cost-line and cashflow. We are all committed to growth in this country, but small businesses need a ‘Budget for Business.’ With 5.7 million SMEs in the UK, our small businesses in communities across the UK are the engine room of economic growth, innovation and job creation – and we all need to support them so we can lay the foundations for business success into 2026.”