Threat of trade war spooks consumers
Fieldwork conducted on 04-07 April 2025
According to BRC-Opinium data, consumer expectations over the next three months of:
- The state of the economy dropped significantly to -48 in April, down from -35 in March.
- Their personal financial situation worsened to -16 in April, down from -10 in March.
- Their personal spending on retail rose to +3 in April, up from 0 in March.
- Their personal spending overall fell slightly to +10 in April, down from +11 in March.
- Their personal saving rose slightly to -4 in April, up from -5 in March.
“Even with a pause on many of the US tariffs, business and consumer confidence remains fragile. The risk of higher global prices is an unwanted addition to the £7bn in new costs hitting retailers this year from higher employer National Insurance, increased NLW, and a new packaging tax. Many retailers are also concerned about the risk of cheap Chinese products being diverted from the US to other destinations, including the UK. The UK should review the de minimis rules, which allow low-value imports to avoid checks and duties. It is vital the UK’s strict quality standards are upheld to ensure the best outcome for British businesses and consumers.
Consumer expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months:
Consumer expectations for their personal financial situation over the next three months:
Consumer expectations of spending over the next three months by category:
Consumer NET expectations of spending over the next three months by category: