Barclays: Confidence in UK economy hits 21 month-high and spending climbs 2% in July, as pub, cinema and UK trips fuel growth

Barclays: Confidence in UK economy hits 21 month-high and spending climbs 2% in July, as pub, cinema and UK trips fuel growth

Card spending grew by 2.0 % year-on-year in July, following a 1.9 % increase in June, but remained below the latest CPIH inflation rate of 2.8 %. Essential spending grew 2.9 % and non-essential spending increased 1.6 %, with England’s run at the World Cup, the July heatwave and recovering consumer confidence all contributing to the uplift.

Confidence in the strength of the UK economy reached 30 % in July – representing a 21 month-high and a six-percentage point improvement on June. Confidence in the European economy also climbed six points to 35 % – the highest level recorded since Barclays started tracking this measure in 2015.

Consumers reported feeling more confident in both their job security and ability to spend on non-essential items, at 47 % and 53 respectively (up from 46 % and 51 %). Confidence in household finances stabilised at 64 %, with the majority feeling able to manage their money without significant stress, and to make good financial decisions in uncertain times (both 57 %).

Socialising, staycations and cinema trips

England’s World Cup run contributed to the volume of pub transactions growing 10.0 % in July, with the value of spending up 7.4 %, its highest level since December 2023 (7.9 %). Meanwhile the overall hospitality & leisure category grew 2.2 %, with cinemas enjoying a 2.6 % boost, following the release of Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey.

Travel spending declined for the fifth consecutive month, down -0.3 %. Airlines contracted -6.0 %, but travel agents saw a 2.5 % uplift. Meanwhile hotels, resorts and accommodation grew 2.6 %, suggesting holidaymakers are still prioritising staycations over trips abroad amid ongoing travel uncertainty, while making the most of higher UK temperatures.

Too hot to shop?

Retail spending grew 2.1 %, building on June’s 1.9 % uplift. The sunny weather also boosted electronic stores (1.3 %), garden centres (4.0 %) and on clothing (2.0 %). This comes as  one in five (20 %) UK adults said they bought light and cool summer clothes in response to the heatwave, while one in four (25 %) avoided cooking and exercising outdoors (26 %) as a result.

UK adults chose 24.6°C as their ideal summer temperature, 13.1°C lower than 2026’s record high, but one in eight (12 %) selected 30°C+. This drops further when considering different activities, with Brits claiming 22°C is their maximum for a comfortable night’s sleep and 23.7°C for exercising outdoors.

 AI-led planning and budgeting on the rise

Half of UK adults (48 %) have now used AI for planning or budgeting – a significant uplift from 35 % in July 2025 – with product research, budgeting and holiday planning emerging as the top uses. Four in five (78 %) Gen Zs have used AI for these purposes, a nine point rise year-on-year (from 69 % in July 2025). Of this group, 26 % have used AI tools to create a workout or fitness plan.

Rohan Kumar, head of spend insights at Barclays, said: “Card spending strengthened further in July, reaching its highest level for 12 months, with both essential and non-essential spend remaining in growth. Multiple factors played a part, with UK staycations, continued warm weather and England’s World Cup run lifting spending on travel, hospitality, everyday essentials and seasonal retail categories.”

 Overall growth figures

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10/08/2026