Barclays: Confidence in UK economy hits 21 month-high and spending climbs 2% in July, as pub, cinema and UK trips fuel growth
Card spending grew by 2.0 % year-on-year in July, following a 1.9 % increase in June, but remained below the latest CPIH inflation rate of 2.8 %. Essential spending grew 2.9 % and non-essential spending increased 1.6 %, with England’s run at the World Cup, the July heatwave and recovering consumer confidence all contributing to the uplift.
Confidence in the strength of the UK economy reached 30 % in July – representing a 21 month-high and a six-percentage point improvement on June. Confidence in the European economy also climbed six points to 35 % – the highest level recorded since Barclays started tracking this measure in 2015.
Consumers reported feeling more confident in both their job security and ability to spend on non-essential items, at 47 % and 53 respectively (up from 46 % and 51 %). Confidence in household finances stabilised at 64 %, with the majority feeling able to manage their money without significant stress, and to make good financial decisions in uncertain times (both 57 %).
Barclays consumer confidence measures |
| ||||||
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | |
Strength of the UK economy | 24% | 25% | 21% | 22% | 25% | 24% | 30% |
Strength of the European economy | 28% | 29% | 26% | 25% | 28% | 29% | 35% |
Strength of the global economy | 25% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 25% | 26% | 27% |
Household finances | 66% | 67% | 65% | 64% | 65% | 64% | 64% |
Job security | 43% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 43% | 46% | 47% |
Ability to spend on non-essentials | 54% | 55% | 53% | 49% | 52% | 51% | 53% |
Ability to live within means | 71% | 74% | 71% | 69% | 70% | 70% | 69% |
Socialising, staycations and cinema trips
England’s World Cup run contributed to the volume of pub transactions growing 10.0 % in July, with the value of spending up 7.4 %, its highest level since December 2023 (7.9 %). Meanwhile the overall hospitality & leisure category grew 2.2 %, with cinemas enjoying a 2.6 % boost, following the release of Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey.
Travel spending declined for the fifth consecutive month, down -0.3 %. Airlines contracted -6.0 %, but travel agents saw a 2.5 % uplift. Meanwhile hotels, resorts and accommodation grew 2.6 %, suggesting holidaymakers are still prioritising staycations over trips abroad amid ongoing travel uncertainty, while making the most of higher UK temperatures.
Too hot to shop?
Retail spending grew 2.1 %, building on June’s 1.9 % uplift. The sunny weather also boosted electronic stores (1.3 %), garden centres (4.0 %) and on clothing (2.0 %). This comes as one in five (20 %) UK adults said they bought light and cool summer clothes in response to the heatwave, while one in four (25 %) avoided cooking and exercising outdoors (26 %) as a result.
UK adults chose 24.6°C as their ideal summer temperature, 13.1°C lower than 2026’s record high, but one in eight (12 %) selected 30°C+. This drops further when considering different activities, with Brits claiming 22°C is their maximum for a comfortable night’s sleep and 23.7°C for exercising outdoors.
Brits’ maximum temperature for daily activities | |||||
Shopping | Commuting | WFH | Sleeping | Cooking | Exercising |
25.1°C | 24.2°C | 23.7°C | 22.0°C | 24.7°C | 23.7°C |
AI-led planning and budgeting on the rise
Half of UK adults (48 %) have now used AI for planning or budgeting – a significant uplift from 35 % in July 2025 – with product research, budgeting and holiday planning emerging as the top uses. Four in five (78 %) Gen Zs have used AI for these purposes, a nine point rise year-on-year (from 69 % in July 2025). Of this group, 26 % have used AI tools to create a workout or fitness plan.
Rohan Kumar, head of spend insights at Barclays, said: “Card spending strengthened further in July, reaching its highest level for 12 months, with both essential and non-essential spend remaining in growth. Multiple factors played a part, with UK staycations, continued warm weather and England’s World Cup run lifting spending on travel, hospitality, everyday essentials and seasonal retail categories.”
Overall growth figures
Spend Growth | Transaction Growth | |
Essential | 2.9% | 2.6% |
Non-Essential | 1.6% | 2.1% |
|
| |
OVERALL | 2.0% | 2.3% |
Retail | 2.1% | 3.2% |
Clothing | 2.0% | 5.7% |
Grocery | 2.6% | 3.9% |
| 2.2% | 2.4% |
| 6.0% | 11.6% |
Household | -0.1% | 4.4% |
| -0.7% | 0.5% |
| 1.3% | 9.6% |
| -1.6% | 1.9% |
| 4.0% | 0.4% |
General Retailers | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| 4.1% | 4.2% |
| -2.3% | -7.5% |
| 1.6% | -2.2% |
Specialist Retailers | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| 2.5% | -1.4% |
| -2.0% | -0.8% |
| 4.0% | 4.5% |
Hospitality & Leisure | 2.2% | 0.8% |
Digital Content & Subscriptions | 7.7% | 3.0% |
Eating & Drinking | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| 2.1% | -0.3% |
| 7.4% | 10.0% |
| 1.8% | -5.0% |
Entertainment | 2.0% | 4.3% |
Hotels, Resorts & Accommodation | 2.6% | 1.8% |
Travel | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 2.5% | 5.7% |
| -6.0% | -1.8% |
| -5.4% | -4.6% |
| 5.0% | 6.4% |
Other | 1.3% | 2.7% |
Fuel | 10.5% | 1.8% |
Motoring | -5.1% | 6.7% |
Other Services | -0.1% | 0.7% |
Insperiences | 3.4% | 0.6% |
|
|
|
Online | 1.8% | 3.9% |
Face-to-Face | 2.2% | 1.6% |