58% of brokers predict a base rate change by this time next year
58% of brokers responding to United Trust Bank’s most recent Broker Sentiment Poll expect the Bank of England to change the base rate by the end of Q2 2020 with a further 25% expecting the next base rate change to come by the end of 2020.
22% of brokers believe the base rate could be changed as early as the end of this year.
When do you think we’ll see the next base rate change?
By the end of Q3 2019
5%
By the end of 2019
17%
By the end of Q2 2020
36%
By the end of 2020
25%
By the end of Q2 2021
4%
By the end of 2021
6%
2022 or later
7%
Nearly half (49%) of brokers who responded to the poll expect the base rate to increase to 1% by the end of next year. However, nearly a quarter (23%) of brokers believe that the base rate will remain at 0.75%.
20% predicted that at the end of 2020 the base rate would be 1.25% or higher.
What do you think the base rate will be at the end of 2020?
Zero
0%
0.25%
3%
0.50%
5%
0.75%
23%
1.00%
49%
1.25%
12%
1.50%
6%
1.75%
0%
2.00%
2%
With Mark Carney stepping down as Governor of the Bank of England in January 2020, the search is on for his successor. UTB asked brokers for their opinion on Mr Carney’s performance in the role and a majority of responses were positive.
How would you describe how Mark Carney has performed in his role?
Outstanding
4%
Good
61%
Average
25%
Poor
5%
Terrible
5%
Harley Kagan, group managing director, United Trust Bank commented:
“The base rate has been 0.75% for almost a year and there has been plenty of speculation that we’d see another increase by the end of 2019.
“However, the rate of inflation remains under the Bank of England’s 2% target at 1.9%, UK growth for the three months to April 2019 has fallen to 0.3% and with Brexit uncertainty now combined with a new prime minister this summer the economic environment calls for a steady monetary policy. The MPC will be wary of stifling growth and consumer spending by increasing interest rates and effectively taking money away from businesses looking to invest and putting more pressure on household budgets already squeezed by low wage growth. Although interest rates are unlikely to stay this low forever, consensus appears to be that we’ll have at least another 12 months with the base rate held at 0.75%. Of course, with less than 4 months until we reach the new Brexit deadline and Government sidetracked by a battle for its leadership, what happens next is anyone’s guess.