Barclays launches 65th edition of the Equity Gilt Study
Barclays Research today released the Equity Gilt Study 2020 (EGS). The 65th edition of this flagship Barclays report delves into the long-term changes wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic and the extraordinary shocks it has delivered in both developed and emerging markets.
Jeff Meli, global head of research at Barclays said:
“In this year’s Equity Gilt Study we analyse how the unparalleled disruption caused by Covid-19 stands to transform the macro landscape. We look at how the pandemic is reversing several decade-long trends, from globalization to international mobility; accelerating others, such as self-reliance and sustainability; and exacerbating issues, from debt management in developed countries, to structural vulnerabilities in emerging markets.”
Across five in-depth chapters, Barclays analysts focus on what the post-pandemic world will look like, including:
- ‘The post-Covid economy’ which analyses how the unprecedented disruption caused by Covid-19 is likely to lead to long-term shifts in consumer behaviour, corporate decision-making and government policy. This chapter considers how, as de-globalisation trends accelerate, cost-efficiency and frictionless movement of goods and people could give way to safety, self-reliance and sustainability.
- ‘DM debt: Pulling all the levers’ evaluates the debt management consequences that the West will grapple with in the aftermath of the policy measures that governments took to cushion the Covid-19 shock. Policy choices in the years ahead range from overt debt reduction policies, such as austerity and taxation, to covert ones, such as financial repression and inflation.
- ‘Diminishing defenses in Emerging Markets’ considers the economic and social challenges facing EM from the Covid-19 shock, and the long-term effects on EM assets and risk. The pandemic should exacerbate existing EM structural vulnerabilities, and create new ones. This will cause EM economies to suffer disproportionately from accelerated de-globalisation and reduced international mobility, even after the near-term shock from the pandemic has faded.
- ‘Reinvigorating US labor force participation’ explains why a labor force participation rate (LFPR) rebound is needed for the US to have a chance at returning to its pre-Covid “goldilocks” economy of low inflation and full employment.
- ‘Managing uncertainty’ considers why uncertainty is different from other types of risk and how it effects markets. It also offers a five-step plan for managing market uncertainty.
