Buy-to-let market shows strain of recent years, despite resilience
UK Finance today releases its buy-to-let update for Q1 2024, alongside its report ‘The Shape of Buy-to-let.’ This report examines the buy-to-let market to look at why landlords are falling into arrears.
Key information
- The volume of lending for buy-to-let (BTL) house purchases more than halved over the course of 2023, with the number of new mortgage loans being granted falling from 25,280 in Q4 2022 to 12,422 in Q1 2024.
- The BTL mortgage market shrank for the first time, from 2.039 million outstanding BTL mortgages in Q1 2023 to 1.98 million in Q1 2024.
- 90% of new BTL lending is now being done on a fixed rate basis.
- While landlords with just one property, most of whom aren’t set up as a company, make up one third of the BTL market, 10%of BTL mortgages are now held by landlords who have set up as companies.
- At the end of 2023, there were 13,570 BTL mortgages in arrears, but this number remained flat in Q1 2024 and is still just 0.68% of all BTL mortgages.
- Mortgage lenders continue to offer tailored support to anyone struggling with their mortgage payments.
Market slowdown
The volume of lending for buy-to-let (BTL) house purchases fell by more than half over the course of 2023, with the number of new loans falling from 25,280 in the last quarter of 2022 to just 12,422 in the first quarter of this year.
Rapidly rising interest rates played a major role in this trend, making it harder for those looking to buy a BTL property to pass lenders’ affordability tests.
The number of outstanding BTL mortgages also shrank for the first time, although only slightly, falling from 2.039 million in the first quarter of last year to 1.98 million in the first quarter of this year.
The stamp duty surcharge on second and subsequent properties, which came into force in 2016, and the progressive removal of higher-rate income tax relief on mortgage payments for rental properties, have also made being a BTL landlord more challenging and less attractive.
Profitability
Despite rents increasing, the rising costs of being a landlord means that it’s not as profitable as it once was. In Q1 2018, the average interest cover ratio – that’s how much of a landlord’s mortgage costs are covered by their rental income – was 342. In Q1 2024 it was 191%.
Fixed versus variable rates
Most BTL borrowers continue to choose fixed rate mortgages, with 90 per cent of new lending during the past two years being done on a fixed rate basis.
However, when compared with the residential sector, a larger proportion of BTL mortgages are on variable rates.
This has contributed to proportionally more BTL mortgage holders falling into arrears, although the total number of BTL mortgages in arrears remain low.
Company vs single-property landlords
The tax changes in 2016 and 2017, which have contributed to the market slowdown, have also led to more BTL landlords setting up within a company structure.
These mortgages still represent just 10% of BTL mortgages, but more and more new and existing landlords are choosing to set up in this way. As the challenges facing BTL landlords remain, this trend is likely to continue.
However, one in three BTL mortgages are still held by landlords who own just one rental property. Most of these landlords are also not set up as a company.
These landlords have been much more likely to struggle with higher interest rates because they can’t use a wider property portfolio to square their higher costs.
Buy-to-let arrears
At the end of the first quarter of this year, 13,570 of the 1.98 million outstanding BTL mortgages were in arrears.
While this is a 93% increase on the same quarter a year ago, it’s still just 0.68% of all BTL mortgages and the number hasn’t increased since the last quarter of last year.
The proportion of BTL mortgages in arrears has risen more than among residential mortgage holders because most BTL mortgages are interest-only. As such, they’re more affected by higher interest rates.
There were also 600 BTL possessions during the first quarter of this year, compared with 430 in the same quarter a year ago. While this is a 40% increase, it’s still below the number before the pandemic.
The increases we’re now seeing are mainly due to the number or possessions cases being seen by the courts returning to normal levels, following the disruption of the pandemic years.
Lender support for borrowers
Lenders remain on hand to help anyone struggling with their mortgage payments. We would encourage anyone who’s worried to reach out to their lender at the earliest opportunity to discuss the support options available for their circumstances.
Contacting your lender to find out what support’s available will not impact your credit score.
James Tatch, head of analytics at UK Finance, said: “A flexible and well-run private rental sector is an essential part of the housing market. Landlords face a number of challenges, from changing regulations to rising interest rates, but have shown resilience.
“However, given the new government is committed to abolishing Section 21 ‘no fault’ eviction notices, it must make sure that responsible landlords have other options for when they have legitimate reasons to take their property back.
“Without more unexpected negative shocks, strong rental demand and strong lending standards could mean the buy-to-let sector emerges from last year’s downturn sooner than previously expected. Also, that further rises in arrears are limited.
“Lenders continue to offer a range of support to anyone who’s worried about their finances, with teams of trained experts ready to help. If you are struggling, please reach out to your lender as soon as possible to discuss the support options available.”
