Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights Report shows quarterly increase
Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB), a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, today released its Q4 2024 Global Business Optimism Insights report. The report, fielded in Q3 2024, found a 7% increase in business optimism quarter-over-quarter, driven by gradual easing of inflation rates and favorable borrowing conditions.
Nearly four in five businesses are expressing increased optimism in domestic and export orders, capital expenditures and financial risk due to a combination of easing financial pressures, shifts in monetary policies, robust regulatory frameworks and higher participation in sustainability initiatives.
U.S. businesses recorded a nearly 9% rise in optimism, aided by falling inflation and expectations of further rate cuts. Similarly, business optimism in the U.K. and Spain showed notable recoveries as their respective central banks initiated monetary easing, rising by 13% and 9%, respectively. Emerging economies, such as Argentina and India, saw jumps in optimism levels due to declining inflation and increased domestic demand respectively.
“While overall global business optimism has increased and inflation has abated, it’s important to recognise that geopolitics contribute to economic uncertainty,” said Neeraj Sahai, President of Dun & Bradstreet International. “Industry-specific regulatory risks and more stringent data requirements have emerged as the top concerns among a third of respondents. To mitigate these risks, businesses are considering diversifying their supply chains and markets to manage regulatory risk.”
Key findings from the Q4 report’s five indices include:
- The Global Business Optimism Index increased by 7.3% over Q3 2024. This is a significant increase with 75% of businesses, especially smaller businesses, expressing confidence in sales and domestic and export orders ahead of the holiday season. The real estate (12.5%) and utilities (10.4%) sectors saw the highest jumps in optimism levels.
- The Global Supply Chain Continuity Index improved 6.8%, stemming from businesses reducing burdens on their supply chains by adopting nearshoring, using alternative and less-congestive routes, and relying on domestic supplies. One in four businesses in the U.S., as well as Switzerland and Spain, are considering diversifying supply chains and markets as their preferred strategy to manage their regulatory risk.
- The Global Business Financial Confidence Index increased 6.3% due to expectations of improved financial conditions and reduced borrowing costs as many economies have started to cut interest rates. Confidence in the U.S. and South Korea notably improved by 5.2% and 11.2%, respectively, on indications of their central banks pivoting towards looser monetary policies.
- The Global Business Investment Confidence Index improved 3.6%, showcasing optimism in capital spending centered around signs of global monetary policies becoming more accommodative, along with improvement in macroeconomic activities.
- The Global Business ESG Index increased by 6.1%, stemming from businesses’ efforts to meet regulatory requirements, stricter disclosure mandates and heightened investor awareness. Globally, stricter environmental regulations, such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act, are among top concerns for 29% of businesses, resulting in almost one in four conducting risk assessments or implementing regulatory compliance strategies.
Descriptions and information about the indices can be found on page 24 of the report.
“Businesses are increasingly confident as borrowing costs decline, boosting optimism for higher sales, stronger exports, and reduced financial risks,” said Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet. “This confidence is driving capital investments, with easing supply chain pressures supporting growth in the year’s final quarter.”
About the Global Business Optimism Insights Report
The Global Business Optimism Insights report is a synthesis of data from a comprehensive survey encompassing 32 economies, covering approximately 10,000 businesses and 17 sectors, alongside insights from Dun & Bradstreet, leveraging the firm’s proprietary data and economic expertise. The report is an amalgamation of five indices which reflect overall business optimism and expectations about supply chain continuity, financial and investment conditions and ESG initiatives. An index reading above 100 indicates an improvement in optimism relative to the base year (Q3 2023 to Q2 2024), while an index reading below 100 signifies a deterioration in optimism.
View the full report here.