EV mandate debate needs facts, not anti-industry fiction
July’s new car figures show a market moving in the right direction. Registrations are growing, drivers have more choice than ever and electric car and van deliveries are at record levels – up 44.5% and 74.1% last month – with more than 170 car and 40-plus van models now available. This is an industry delivering change, investing in the products that will make zero emission mobility mainstream.
But positive figures do not mean this is a market transforming of its own accord. Progress is significant but suggesting this proves the ZEV Mandate is “working” ignores the reality facing those expected to deliver it. The mandate compels supply; it cannot create demand. Repeated surveys, by Autotrader, Deloitte and others, put underlying demand well below the headline figures at around 10% to 13% – a long way from the mandated targets of 33% this year, 38% next year and 52% by 2028.
Manufacturers can bridge part of the gap through flexibilities, including CO2 credits, borrowing against future performance and payments to competitors or government. But these are still payments – and expensive ones – undermining competitiveness and viability. The design also creates perverse outcomes, with those that moved earliest to decarbonise often facing tougher requirements than newer entrants. The result is billions being spent on discounts, finance incentives and marketing support to stimulate demand beyond its natural level.
This is not a sustainable business model. Every pound spent on discounting is a pound diverted from the investment needed to keep the UK competitive. It also matters for decarbonisation itself since EVs built in the UK typically carry less embedded carbon than many of those from elsewhere – a point often ignored or dismissed as “out of scope”, despite climate change being a global issue. And if selling vehicles in the UK becomes increasingly costly as a result, the case for investing here is thereby weakened irrespective of where those vehicles are sold.
That’s why claims – inevitably made by those detached from the commercial realities of building and selling vehicles – that manufacturers can comfortably comply through flexibilities create a false narrative. No one understands their markets better than manufacturers and their dealer networks.
The reality is that not a single manufacturer – UK-based or importing, in credit or not – believes the regulated 2030 target of 80% is on track, let alone the 95% the Committee for Climate Change suggests is achievable for both cars and vans. With just three and a half years to go, and despite unprecedented incentives, BEV share is 25.3% for cars and not even half that for vans. For cars, the biggest challenge remains private retail buyers, with four in five still choosing non-BEV models. Salary sacrifice helps but remains a minority benefit.
Urgent reform of the mandate is therefore needed, alongside renewed commitment from all stakeholders to build consumer confidence. Department for Transport analysis reported this week underlined continuing concerns over charging cost, availability and reliability. Infrastructure has improved but not fast or evenly enough, with just one public charger for every 40-plus plug-in cars in the South East and North West compared with one for every nine in London. We need nationwide market transformation – yes, “in every postcode” – for every driver, including those with specific needs, but that is not yet happening, as Vauxhall’s latest survey of council provision and accessibility highlights.
Ambition matters, but delivery is essential. Government, industry and the energy and charging sectors must work together to ensure a just transition that is affordable and supports investment in UK automotive manufacturing. Without both, we risk undermining the very transition we are trying to accelerate.