Fed needs supersized 50-point cut in Sept or risk recession

The Federal Reserve must go big with a supersized 50 basis point interest rate cut in September to get ahead of a looming economic storm, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

​The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as consumer prices in the US inched up modestly last month, adding fuel to the widespread expectations that the Fed will begin easing its grip on interest rates.

​The latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a modest 0.2% rise in the consumer price index for July, including a ‘core’ measure that strips out volatile food and energy prices.

​But with the economy standing at a precipice with consumer confidence showing signs of weakness, spending slowing, and concerns over corporate earnings, many are arguing that a cautious approach just won’t cut it.

​Nigel Green comments: “Here’s the hard truth: the Fed was behind the curve when this cycle began, and it cannot afford to make the same mistake twice.

​“With rates currently sitting at a more than two-decade high, there’s no room for hesitation. A 25 basis point cut might signal a shift, but it’s not the aggressive action needed to stave off a potentially devastating hard landing.

​“The case for a bold 50 basis point cut in September is clear. This move would send a powerful signal that the Fed is serious about steering the US economy away from the brink of a recession.

​“Follow that with two more 25 basis point cuts in November and December, and the Fed would not only be addressing immediate concerns, but also setting the stage for sustainable economic growth.”

​Fed chair Jerome Powell said last month that recent inflation figures “add somewhat to confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank’s target sustainably, after noting the economy is “no longer overheated” during his congressional testimony.

​While critics argue that the Fed’s measured pace is necessary to avoid overcorrecting, the risks of inaction – or insufficient action – are far greater.

​ “If the central bank doesn’t move decisively, we could be looking at a prolonged period of stagnation, or worse, a full-blown recession. The stakes couldn’t be higher,” affirms Nigel Green.

​ He concludes: “The Fed needs to stop playing catch-up and start leading the charge.

​ “Anything less than a 50 basis point cut in September would be a missed opportunity – one that the economy, and Americans, can’t afford.

​ “It’s time for the Fed to act boldly, to cut rates aggressively, and to send a clear message that it’s ready to do whatever it takes to keep the US economy on track.”