From AI discovery to late-night shopping: the trends shaping Europe’s holiday season
According to Mastercard Economics Institute, overall holiday spending is projected to increase by 3.4% year-over-year (excluding automobile and fuel sales) between 1 November and 26 December across Europe.
A resilient European holiday spending
Holiday shopping season may still be weeks away, but European consumers are entering the season in good shape. According to the Mastercard Economics Institute’s annual holiday season forecast, Europe’s retail sales, excluding automobiles and fuel, are set to increase 3.4% year over year between 1 November and 26 December based on SpendingPulse insights which represent in-store and online spending across all forms of payment.
This resilience reflects a relatively solid economic backdrop. Labour markets across much of Europe remain robust, with unemployment rates close to historic lows. While inflation remains a consideration for households, broader price pressures remain contained. Eurozone core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, has remained relatively stable over the six months. However, the increase in natural gas prices since the summer is expected to push up energy costs during the holiday season, adding to pressure from higher fuel prices. Moreover, price pressures are likely to start broadening to goods, services and food through the holiday season, further reinforcing European consumers’ long-standing focus on value.
Holiday shopping goes around the Clock
While physical stores remain a central part of the holiday shopping experience, particularly in the final days before Christmas for categories such as toys, jewellery and cosmetics, e-commerce continues to drive the strongest growth in seasonal spending. Since the early 2010s, online spending has consistently outpaced in-store growth, with activity peaking around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Premium fashion, beauty, sporting goods and electronics typically see the largest online uplift, as shoppers take advantage of seasonal promotions.
Late-night shopping is becoming increasingly common, with the share of online spending after 8pm rising during the holiday season across Europe, reflecting how consumers are fitting gift buying around busy schedules. In Spain, nearly a quarter of online holiday spending takes place after 8pm. In the UK, the share of online spending occurring after 8pm rose from 12% in 2019 to 15% in January-September 2025 and climbs even higher to 17% during the holiday season.
From Shop windows to Chat Windows: AI enters the festive season
AI is becoming more deeply embedded in everyday life, while the rise of agentic commerce is introducing new ways for consumers to discover products, compare options and find value.
To better understand AI’s impact on holiday spending behaviour, MEI analysed purchasing patterns among AI subscribers and non-subscribers during two key shopping periods: Black Friday weekend (including Cyber Monday) and the final days leading up to Christmas (20-25 December). Some key takeaways:
- AI subscribers concentrate more of their lifestyle holiday spending during Black Friday weekend (fashion, beauty and home furnishings), while non-AI subscribers are more likely to focus on discounted electronics purchases. In Spain, 15% of holiday electronics spending by non-AI subscribers occurs during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday period, versus 12% among AI subscribers.
- AI subscribers are also more likely to shop at the last minute. Across major gifting categories, they do a larger share of their in-store spending last-minute, with jewellery proving a popular late-season purchase, especially in Czech Republic, Italy and the UK.
- Overall, AI subscribers tend to concentrate their spending in the peak Black Friday and last-minute periods, while non-AI subscribers spread their shopping more evenly over the full holiday season.
From Shop windows to Chat Windows: AI enters the festive season
Small high-street businesses are poised to benefit from increased consumer spending on experiences, services and personal touches that are difficult to replicate online. They see the strongest seasonal gains of in-person spending share during the holiday period compared to the rest of the year in categories such as travel agencies in the UK (+4pp), live performances in Italy and Poland (+5pp), Arts and Crafts stores in Spain (+4pp), florists in Czechia (+4pp), and independent cinemas in France. (+3pp)
Business spending also peaks in the final quarter of the year: nearly a third of annual restaurant spending by small and large businesses in Europe takes place in Q4. It’s not just hospitality: small businesses across Europe also devote nearly a third of their yearly electronics & appliance spending to the quarter. What’s more, business spending carries outsized weight, as business transactions are typically far larger than consumer purchases. In the UK, for example, the average holiday season restaurant transaction on a small business card is twice the value of a consumer transaction, while transactions on large corporate cards are around five times larger.
Tropical escapes and European City breaks as winter travel trends
Asian destinations record the strongest growth in popularity among European travellers for the November-December 2026 holiday period, based on year-over-year increases in booking shares. Phuket leads the rankings, with Tokyo and Bangkok also recording significant gains. Closer to home, city breaks in Poland, Italy and Bratislava, are attracting growing interest, while Canadian cities Montreal and Toronto also rank among the fastest-growing long-haul destinations.
Natalia Lechmanova, chief economist Europe at Mastercard Economics Institute says: “The 2026 holiday season reflects a European consumer who is both resilient and increasingly digital. Shoppers are embracing greater flexibility, purchasing online at all hours and turning to AI to help navigate holiday purchases. At the same time, spending on experiences, travel and at local businesses highlights consumers’ continued desire to celebrate, connect and create meaningful moments during the holiday period.”
EURO FORECASTS | 2026 HOLIDAY | ||
|---|---|---|
Total Retail excluding Auto and Automotive Fuel | ||
Country | Total | E-commerce |
France | 3.1% | 5.0% |
Italy | 2.9% | 7.5% |
Czechia | 4.5% | 9.8% |
Germany | 2.5% | 4.7% |
Spain | 4.0% | 11.2% |
Hungary | 4.0% | 10.1% |
Netherlands | 3.0% | 4.9% |
Poland | 4.0% | 10.9% |
UK | 4.5% | 9.3% |
Total (9 countries) | 3.4%* | |
YoYs are calculated by comparing sales from November 1 to December 26, 2026, with the same period in 2025. | ||
*This is according to Mastercard SpendingPulse which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, including cash and cheque, and is not adjusted for inflation. This is for select 9 markets in Europe: Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom
About Mastercard SpendingPulse
Mastercard SpendingPulse measures national retail sales based on aggregated and anonymized Mastercard insights, representing all payment types in select markets around the world.
Mastercard SpendingPulse defines “Europe retail sales” as sales at retailers and food services merchants of all sizes. Sales activity within most of the services sector (for example, travel services such as airlines and lodging) are not included in the total retail sales figure. SpendingPulse insights are not indicative of Mastercard company performance; insights and forecast are subject to change.
About the Mastercard Economics Institute
The Mastercard Economics Institute provides insights into global and local economic trends using advanced analytics and Mastercard’s proprietary data assets. Established in 2020, MEI supports businesses, governments, and policymakers with economic monitoring services and timely analysis on economic themes including consumer spending, retail and travel trends, and other local and global barometers of economic performance. MEI offers valuable perspectives to inform decision-making and promote sustainable growth worldwide through our thought leadership series, and through Mastercard’s specialized product offerings.