Holiday spending hits record highs but retailers face a financial shock in January
Cyber Week may be over, but the most costly phase of the holiday season is still ahead. Chargebacks911, a global leader in dispute resolution and chargeback prevention, is warning retailers that the biggest risks often surface after the holiday rush, not during it.
Early spending indicators suggest a strong season, with online revenue projected at more than 253bn dollars. Mobile commerce is on track to dominate more than half of those sales. At the same time, BNPL adoption continues to surge, creating payment patterns that are convenient for consumers but increasingly complex for retailers to manage.
Chargebacks911 reports that as sales rise, so does the likelihood of post purchase disputes. Friendly fraud remains a major driver, now amplified by consumer habits that favour immediate action through banking apps. Many shoppers dispute charges when a billing descriptor looks unfamiliar, a delivery lags behind expectations or a refund takes longer than anticipated. These disputes frequently appear weeks after the holiday peak, leaving merchants with costly surprises long after order volumes stabilize.
Chargebacks911 founder & CEO, Monica Eaton, says retailers should not assume the end of Cyber Week signals the end of risk.
“Customers are buying quickly and resolving issues even faster,” said Eaton. “When something feels off, many people tap their banking app before checking their order history or contacting the retailer. Without strong post purchase processes, merchants lose revenue they worked hard to earn.”
Eaton notes that holiday disputes often follow predictable patterns. Delayed shipments, late night impulse purchases, mismatched billing names and refund impatience play a significant role in driving friendly fraud cases each December. These patterns accelerate each year as digital buying habits become more ingrained.
Chargebacks911 recommends that merchants take immediate steps to protect holiday revenue. Clear billing descriptors, proactive shipping updates, transparent refund timelines and real time dispute alerts can dramatically reduce preventable chargebacks. The company also advises merchants to review their dispute ratios weekly throughout December and January and to deploy tools that prevent accidental double refunds and ensure banks receive complete and accurate evidence.
“Preparation is the strongest defence,” Eaton added. “Retailers that reinforce their post purchase experience now will safeguard more of their holiday profits and start the new year in a stronger position.”
Chargebacks911 warns that dispute volume typically increases in early 2026 as cardholders review their statements and holiday spending settles. The company’s technology platform offers advanced analytics, automated workflows and comprehensive dispute coverage, helping merchants stay ahead of escalating post transaction fraud.