House Prices hold for a second month as confidence cools ahead of the Budget
The latest e.surv Acadata House Price Index shows average house prices in England and Wales held firm in September at £355,100, unchanged from August. While this marks the second month of price stability following six months of declines, values remain 3.0% below those recorded a year ago.
After months of adjustment following April’s stamp duty reforms, transaction levels are beginning to settle (Figure 1). Sales activity in July and August returned to typical seasonal norms, suggesting the market has now absorbed earlier policy distortions. However, confidence remains muted as households and investors await clarity from the upcoming November Budget before making any commitments.
Rob Owens, head of research at e.surv, commented: “Market sentiment continues to be weighed down by economic uncertainty, concerns over employment, and speculation around potential tax changes in the upcoming November Budget. With downsizers and landlords adding supply to the market, and refinancing pressures mounting for borrowers, price growth remains constrained.”
Regionally, price declines have been widespread year-on-year, with London being the only region to post a modest annual gain at 0.5%. The South East recorded the steepest annual fall (-4.8%), followed by the East of England (-3.1%). Elsewhere, prices fell modestly across the North East, Wales and Yorkshire and the Humber (-1.6%, -1.7% and -2.5% respectively).
Despite the subdued picture, Rob remained cautiously optimistic: “Despite current challenges, structural undersupply and latent demand from aspiring homeowners suggest that any Budget measures aimed at stimulating housing could quickly shift momentum.”
The e.surv Acadata HPI is based on every residential property transaction in England and Wales, including both cash and mortgage purchases, providing one of the most comprehensive and reliable measures of house price trends.
Figure 1: Stamp duty distortions now in the past
For more information, visit: https://www.esurv.co.uk/category/insight/house-price-index/