India’s trade growth looks set to continue
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligence and big data, shows that India’s trade outlook is extremely prosperous, having improved four points from the last quarter in June to now stand at 83. This is the highest index value of all seven countries tracked by the Global Trade Barometer.
The improvement will be largely powered by ocean trade which saw a ten-point increase from 79 to 89 this quarter. Robust growth appears on both the import and export fronts, with industrial raw materials, chemicals and products, and basic raw materials driving the positive outlook for ocean exports. High technology and basic raw materials are both expected to drive the import demand. For air freight, trade is forecasted to grow though at a slower pace.
The Barometer’s results also suggest that despite intensifying global trade disputes, mainly between China and the US, world trade is expected to grow over the next three months albeit at a slower pace. The growth outlook looks positive for all Asia Pacific countries with India leading the ranks, along with optimistic outlooks for South Korea, China, and Japan. This is testament to the Asian economy’s growth, especially in the areas of technology and manufacturing. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.
Developed jointly by DHL and Accenture, the DHL Global Trade Barometer provides a quarterly outlook on future trade, taking into consideration the import and export data of seven large economies: China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Together, these countries account for 75 percent of world trade, making their aggregated data an effective bellwether for near-term predictions on global trade. The DHL Global Trade Barometer, which assesses commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production, predicts that global trade will continue to grow in the next three months, despite slight losses in momentum.