Invoice rejections surge 273% as global trade wars intensify
Global invoice rejections have surged 273% in the first quarter of 2025, as companies brace for impact amid escalating tariff and trade disruptions, according to new research released today.
Basware’s latest Invoice Rejection Analysis found that from its 272 million inspected invoices, businesses rejected 6.95% of invoices in Q1 2025 (2.9 million), compared to just 1.86% during the same period last year (744,000) – disrupting financial systems worldwide.
These rejections represent fractured supply chains, strained buyer/supplier relationships, and finance teams working overtime on damage control.
If current rejection rates continue through 2025, the global cost would reach $186 trillion.
Global businesses process approximately 560 billion invoices annually. With rejection rates spiking to 6.95%, that translates to 38.92 billion rejected invoices. At an average enterprise value of $4,782 per invoice, the financial impact snowballs into $186.12 trillion – more than six times the annual GDP of the United States.
Jason Kurtz, CEO, Basware said: “It’s clear that looming tariffs and trade uncertainty has led to a surge in invoice rejections as businesses scramble to renegotiate contracts and update payment terms. We haven’t seen such seismic shifts in payment delays since the Covid pandemic, underlining the very real impact these trade wars are having on global supply chains.
The reality is that the US tariff policy is creating huge strains for international trade, hitting business finance teams hard. We saw an increase of 2 million invoice rejections in the first three months of this year alone, suggesting companies are using payment delays as a financial buffer against wider economic uncertainty.”
The unprecedented rejection figures indicate that organizations are cancelling contracts, renegotiating agreements, and blocking payments in desperate attempts to stockpile cash reserves as recession fears mount.
The timing of this rejection surge directly coincides with the implementation of widespread tariffs.
As the United States pushes ahead with its tariff policies worldwide – including a 10% baseline tax on most countries and up to 145% on Chinese imports – finance teams are scrambling to prepare for constantly shifting regulations and compliance requirements.
As a result, US manufacturers are rejecting invoices from overseas suppliers as they reassess supply chains and costs.
Comparing the first quarter of 2024 with 2025, invoice volumes also rose by 5%, from 40 million to 42 million. Basware analysts suggest the jump is down to businesses pushing through transactions before the full impact of tariffs is felt.
The ripple effect extends to financial markets, with the International Monetary Fund now predicting a 40% probability of a US recession this year, up from 25% last October.