Market Report: EU/US trade deal pushes stock markets towards new highs
Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown: “After a roaring victory on the football field for the Lionesses to retain the title in Euro 2025, UK investors are continuing to enjoy the feel-good factor with a strong open expected for the FTSE 100 this morning. There’s potential for indices both sides of the Atlantic to reach new high-water marks today.
But rather than the £800m or so spending boost on items such as beer and football shirts that the tournament’s provided, it’s the inking of a trade deal between the United States and European Union that’s helping markets spring into action this morning. The 15% tariff on all transatlantic EU exports should be a huge relief for multiple European industries, from pharmaceutical companies through to electronic manufacturers and luxury brands. The likes of Airbus will be glad to hear that certain products, including aircraft and plane parts, will not attract any tariffs. As the world’s biggest trade corridor (30% of global trade and 43% of world GDP), this removes a huge element of doubt ahead of the 1 August deadline.
European stocks are also up this morning and US futures point to a solid start to the week later today. There’s little economic or corporate news expected today, but looking to the rest of the week, investors have plenty of central bank meetings, economic data points, and earnings season read outs to get to grips with. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but markets will also be closely watching second-quarter US GDP figures. Forecasts expect a 2.4% rebound following a 0.5% in Q1. Surging imports caused by tariff fears are now thought to have subsided. Elsewhere, there’s also Eurozone second-quarter GDP numbers to keep an eye on and a rate decision by the Bank of Japan.
On the earnings front, big oil is in focus with Shell, Exxon Mobil and Chevron all due to report. AstraZeneca and GSK will provide a health check on the UK’s pharma giants, and BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and Boeing are on the table for the aerospace and defence sector. It’s a huge week for big tech too with Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon all set to update investors. Some 80% of US quoted large caps have beaten Q2 forecasts so far, but with more than half left to report, there’s still a lot to play for.
The US-EU trade deal has seen Brent crude oil prices climb back to $69 per barrel, with trade talks between Washington and Beijing the main focus for the rest of today. Later this week, estimates for July production by OPEC nations will confirm to what extent production increases have materialised.”