Market Report: markets battle through September relatively unscathed
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “The FTSE 100 opened on the back foot this morning, slipping slightly as the month draws to a close, but it’s still on course to finish September in positive territory. With little in the way of fresh catalysts this morning, attention is likely to stay on global macro themes and the upcoming US data slate later this week.
The turnaround at ASOS is making some ground, with profitability improving and margins moving higher, but that’s not good enough to keep investors happy. Clearing old stock and cutting costs have strengthened the foundations, but the business still faces serious challenges, from falling customer numbers to intense competition. The focus now shifts to rebuilding demand without losing the gains on profitability – a tricky balance that means the road ahead looks bumpy.
The September slump is nowhere to be seen as US stock markets edged higher last night, setting up for what could be the best September in over a decade. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains yesterday, with breadth improving as equal-weight indices outperformed and momentum led the charge. Futures point to a positive open today, with attention turning to a heavy slate of economic data this week – most notably Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, which could prove pivotal for the Fed’s next move.
But there won’t be any data at all if the US government shuts down. The current funding plan expires at midnight tonight, meaning a complete shutdown across a host of government services from tomorrow if no agreement is reached. We’ve been here before, so markets won’t take it as a major shock, but it’s certainly a recipe for volatility – and that’s helping to fuel the fire beneath gold’s unwavering bull run.
OpenAI has just taken a major step in turning ChatGPT into a shopping destination, launching Instant Checkout to let users buy products without ever leaving the chat. By enabling users to complete purchases without leaving the conversation, ChatGPT is blurring the lines between search, discovery, and transaction. For Shopify and other early partners, this could accelerate e-commerce adoption and shift consumer behaviour away from traditional web and app-based shopping toward AI-driven experiences. This marks the first real step toward pulling valuable transactional traffic away from search engines like Google – putting Alphabet on the clock to roll out its own AI shopping experience.
Oil prices were down again this morning, extending losses as oversupply concerns remain front and centre. Traders are bracing for an OPEC+ decision this weekend that could add 137,000 bpd in November, while exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region have resumed after a two-year halt. Hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and the risk of a US government shutdown add complexity, with the market focused on the near-term reality of ample supply and several potential catalysts for softening demand.“