NatWest UK Regional Growth Tracker
The latest NatWest UK Growth Tracker showed a rise in private sector output in ten out of the 12 nations and regions monitored. This was up slightly from nine in June.
The Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled.
Business activity growth was led by Northern Ireland for the second time in the past three months in July. Just behind it was the South West, which continued to gain momentum and recorded its steepest rise in output for more than two years. At the other end of the scale, Wales and the East Midlands both recorded modest reductions in business activity.
Sebastian Burnside, NatWest chief economist, commented: “July’s Growth Tracker report showed a rise in the number of UK nations and regions reporting higher business activity, marking an encouraging start to the second half of the year. Looking past the headline numbers, there were further signs of improvement.
“A notable increase in the number of nations and regions reporting greater inflows of new work in July was a sure sign of a pick-up in underlying demand, and it coincided with greater optimism towards the outlook almost across the board. Only Northern Ireland bucked the trend and saw a softening of growth expectations, although this could reflect the fact it had such a strong month in July.
“Northern Ireland not only recorded the fastest increase in business activity across the UK at the start of the third quarter, but also the most marked rise in employment.
“July also saw the highest number of nations and regions reporting increases in employment for over a year, with all but two of the 12 areas monitored seeing positive labour market performances.
“Price pressures are generally still above the long-run trend in most areas – and it will be interesting to see how this develops in the coming months following the first rate cut by the Bank of England in more than four years at the beginning of August.”
