New Barclays Business Prosperity research reveals net positive tariff opportunities
Barclays Business Prosperity research reveals that despite widespread concerns over new US tariffs, UK businesses – particularly larger firms – are adapting and predict a net positive impact on exports, supply chains and profits.
Conducted between 12-22 May, the survey of 1000 UK micro, small, medium and large businesses found:
- The majority (79 %) are concerned about tariffs and global trade uncertainty and nearly half already adjusting US operations or supply chains
- Despite concerns, many expect positive effects on profit margins, customer demand, export volumes and supply chain stability
- Data suggests action was taken before tariffs were implemented on 2 April, with 59 % of those who have increased trade doing so with Europe and Central Asia in Q1 2025 – compared to North America (18 %) and Asia-Pacific (10 %)
- Almost half say improving productivity is now more important now than a year ago, with 72 % finding hiring difficulties are holding back growth
UK businesses remain confident about their own prosperity (86 % over the next three-five years), despite widespread concern about tariffs and global trade uncertainty (79 %).
This uncertainty has resulted in UK firms taking proactive steps to diversify international trade and build resilient supply chains, whilst looking to benefit from potential upsides to tariffs.
Nearly half (48 %) are already adjusting their US operations or supply chains, with 14 % scaling down and 15 % pausing or reducing investment in the market.
Additionally, 59 % of businesses who increased trade didn’t wait for tariffs to come into effect and reported doing so with Europe and Central Asia in the last 12 months – far outpacing growth in North America (18 %) and Asia-Pacific (10 %). Almost half of businesses (44 %) increased international trade over the past 12 months.
However, despite the concerns, many businesses expect the potential upsides from US tariffs to outweigh the negatives on profit margins (36 %), customer demand (37 %), export volumes (34 %) and supply chain stability (34 %). Yet in general, the majority of UK businesses (37 %) still expect a negative impact from the US tariffs on their overall prospects.
Impact of tariffs on trade
| Business size | |||||
| All | Micro | Small | Mid-sized | Large | |
| Net negative impact on profit margins | 32% | 28% | 34% | 32% | 33% |
| Net positive impact on profit margins | 36% | 4% | 36% | 43% | 49% |
| Net negative impact on export volumes | 26% | 12% | 31% | 28% | 30% |
| Net positive impact on export volumes | 34% | 2% | 30% | 43% | 49% |
| Net negative impact on overall business prospects | 37% | 26% | 38% | 42% | 39% |
| Net positive impact on overall business prospects | 28% | 5% | 27% | 32% | 40% |
| Net negative impact on customer demand | 27% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 28% |
| Net positive impact on customer demand | 37% | 6% | 35% | 48% | 49% |
| Net negative on supply chain stability | 31% | 23% | 39% | 32% | 31% |
| Net positive on supply chain stability | 34% | 2% | 30% | 44% | 49% |
Matt Hammerstein, chief executive of Barclays UK Corporate Banking, said:“Given the widespread uncertainty in the international trade environment, it’s unsurprising that businesses are taking proactive steps to adapt to these global pressures. A strong international trade strategy, and revised supply chain considerations, can turn geopolitical uncertainty into a competitive advantage and many larger firms are already adapting to build diverse global trade to develop resilience.”
Productivity is a top priority for UK businesses
The current economic climate is also driving action on productivity, with 46 % of UK businesses claiming improving productivity is more important now than a year ago. This comes amid a backdrop of 72 % of businesses finding difficulties in hiring skilled labour, which they attribute to holding back growth.
The majority (89 %) of businesses are planning to take steps to improve the productivity of their workforce, prioritising investing in upskilling employees through training (34 %) and streamlining processes and improving efficiency (32 %).
Intent to invest remains despite uncertainty
Investment plans reflect the ongoing focus on boosting productivity, with nearly half of businesses (46 %) intending to invest in staff training and development. Meanwhile 39 % will prioritise innovation and new product development and 35 % plan to invest in digital transformation.
Business investment in physical assets also remains strong, with 35 % of firms aiming to purchase new or upgraded equipment, machinery, or vehicles, and 33 % planning new or expanded facilities.
Global uncertainty is impacting business uptake of debt finance for investment, with close to four in five (79 %) not borrowing to invest over the last 12 months. Of those who considered borrowing to invest but did not go ahead, 48 % cited economic uncertainty or awaiting a better environment for choosing not to. Over a third (34 %) cited high interest rates as the main barrier to borrowing.
However fewer than one in 10 (9 %) expect to hold back on investment altogether in the coming year, suggesting an intent to invest remains.
Hannah Bernard, head of Barclays Business Banking, said:“Productivity gains are seen as vital to help offset the increasing cost pressures on businesses. The focus on upskilling staff through training and development is a positive way for firms to combat skilled labour challenges, alongside efficiencies from digital transformation through emerging technologies such as AI.”
“Businesses are also identifying key areas for investment and with interest rates coming down coupled with this increasing proactivity in international trade, there are positive signs for reducing barriers to investment.”
To support business to invest for growth, The Barclays Business Prosperity Fund is available for new and existing Business Banking customers and UK Corporate Banking clients across the UK to apply for lending and refinancing on existing projects. Businesses can find out more at: home.barclays/businessprosperity.
£22bn is the total amount of lending Barclays has available to lend and support business growth among Business Banking and UK Corporate Banking clients in 2025. Subject to normal lending assessment, status and application. Terms and conditions apply.